Day: April 6, 2023

Intense fighting in southeastern Myanmar’s Kayin state has prompted more than 4,000 people to flee across the Thai border, where many have crowded together in makeshift camps on goat and cattle farms, aid workers said. 

Citizen video obtained by Radio Free Asia showed several dozen people wading chest-deep across the Thaung Yin River into Thailand. Some carried a bag or wore a backpack while others appeared to be crossing without any personal possessions.

The refugees staying on goat and cattle farms around Mae Sot don’t have enough access to toilets and are dealing with hot weather, aid worker Myo Myint Aung told RFA. April is the hottest time of year.

“There is no toilet for them at the goat farm,” he said. “We will have to relocate them to the cattle farm but since there are too many refugees there and transportation is difficult, they are still kept at the goat farm.”

A person helping the displaced war refugees said there are currently 3,000 war refugees in Thailand’s Mae Sot district and over 1,000 in Mae Yama district.

The refugees have fled intensifying fighting in Kayin state between forces for and against the military junta, which took over the government in a 2021 coup.

On Wednesday, the anti-junta Karen National Liberation Army, or KNLA, raided two outposts of the military junta and the Karen Border Guard Force – an ethnic Karen force aligned with the Myanmar military – near Shwe Kokko in Myawaddy township.

Shwe Kokko is the site of a Chinese-backed U.S $15 billion real estate and casino mega-project that has gained notoriety as a bastion of illegal activity, including drug trafficking. Fierce fighting also broke out at a casino residence and at the village’s Kayin New Year celebration grounds.

‘We left everything at home’

People only had time to grab a few clothing items before leaving their homes, said Min Thant, a Myawaddy township resident who fled to one of the new camps in Thailand.

“Shwe Kokko residents said earlier that they were going to flee as the sound of heavy artillery shelling was too close to our village,” he said. “The artillery shelling got even closer to the village around 8 a.m. and everyone fled here… We couldn’t bring much with us except some necessary clothes and ran. We left everything at home.” 

Thai authorities are helping displaced people flee from Myanmar to Thailand, and are helping them find shelter in five locations, said Ye Min of the Aid Alliance Committee, a Thailand-based migrant worker rights organization.

“Thai authorities have designated some places in Thai villages, schools and some locations on the opposite side of the border from where battles broke out,” he said. “Thai residents from nearby villages cook food and send it to them. The Thai military is also providing them with water and health care.”

Worries of possible forced return

A staff member at Friends without Borders, a Thai NGO that works on the Thai-Myanmar border, told BenarNews that she is still worried that the refugees may be deported prematurely even though they are currently being treated with leniency by Thai authorities.

“I praise the authorities for not barring them,” Pornsuk Kedsawang said. “But what worries me is that they may send them back too soon, so I beg the authorities to keep them until the situation is calm.” 

A Mae Sot resident said residents are planning to provide food to refugees with physical and mental injuries.

“When a war breaks out, people develop anxiety and fear,” he said. “They are scared of bullets or injuries. They are worried that their homes and belongings would burn. They cry with such worries and anxieties.”

Saw Khin Maung Myint, the junta’s Karen state spokesman, said to RFA that he has reported the refugee situation to government officials in Nay Pyi Taw.

“Our government (state administration) can’t reach out to the refugees who are in Mae Sot,” he said. “If I may say, I think that the Union government is responsible for such cases. That’s why we report the issues to the Union government.”

Saw Khin Maung Myint did not answer RFA’s inquiry about the situation of the fighting. Junta spokesman Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun also did not respond to a request for comment from RFA.

A Myawaddy resident said fighting had calmed down by Thursday morning.

The Karen Border Guard Force has not yet released any information about the casualties on both sides as a result of the fighting. RFA contacted the KNLA joint forces by telephone, but was unable to contact them.

Translated by Myo Min Aung. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster. BenarNews is an RFA-affiliated news organization.

The U.S. Embassy said Thursday it doesn’t “support any particular individual, institution, or political party” in Cambodia, and only wants the country to have “an inclusive, multi-party democracy.”

The statement from Embassy spokesperson Stephanie Arzate on Thursday followed a public warning from Prime Minister Hun Sen earlier this week of a break in diplomatic relations if “Cambodia’s foreign friends” support opposition party groups and politicians. 

“Promoting democracy and respect for human rights is central to U.S. foreign policy in Cambodia and around the world,” Arzate said in response to an inquiry from Radio Free Asia. “We support the Cambodian people and their sustained aspirations for an inclusive, multi-party democracy that protects human rights as enshrined in the Kingdom’s constitution.”

Speaking at a hospital inauguration in Tbong Khmum province on Monday, Hun Sen alluded to recent lawsuits and criminal court verdicts against prominent opposition party politicians. 

“You have to choose between an individual group that breaks the laws and the government,” he said. “Please choose one. If you need those who were penalized by law, please do so, and you can then break diplomatic relations from Cambodia.”

In recent months, the ruling Cambodian People’s Party and Hun Sen have been working to silence and intimidate opposition figures ahead of the July general elections through a series of arrests and lawsuits.

In the same remarks on Monday, Hun Sen said he would continue to hunt and eliminate opposition groups – who he accused of committing treason – out of the political arena. 

In one high-profile example, opposition party leader Kem Sokha was sentenced to 27 years for treason last month in a decision widely condemned as politically motivated. 

The charges stemmed partly from a 2013 video in which he discusses a strategy to win power with the help of American experts. The United States Embassy has rejected any suggestion that Washington was trying to interfere in Cambodian politics.

Ammo, fuel, explosives

Defense Minister Tea Banh laid down his own challenge to foreign countries, saying that if any nation wants to hold joint military exercises with Cambodia, they should invite Cambodia to do so and should also cover the costs.

Cambodia and China are currently holding joint military exercises – focusing on security operations during major events and humanitarian relief – at the Military Police Training Center in Kampong Chhnang province. The Golden Dragon exercises run from March 23 to April 8.

Earlier in March, the two nations staged their first-ever joint naval drills in waters off Sihanoukville in southwest Cambodia. The province is home to the Ream Naval Base that China is helping Cambodia to develop. 

Tea Banh said the Chinese military has provided ammunition, explosives, gasoline and other military equipment for the joint drills. Additionally, the Chinese military will hand over all military equipment to Cambodia once the drills have been completed, he said. 

China has been the only country to reach out to Phnom Penh about joint exercises, the minister said at a ceremony on Wednesday. Other countries have only complained about Cambodia’s military, but have taken no action, he said.

“If you truly have a genuine intent, please come have a real discussion about this,” he said. “How much would you responsibly be able to cover for the costs of expenses of a joint exercise?”

Military ties between China and Cambodia have deepened in recent years, with Beijing providing aid, equipment and training. In 2021, the United States imposed an arms embargo on Cambodia over concerns about “deepening Chinese military influence” in the country.

Wei Wenhui, China’s southern regional commander, said at Wednesday’s ceremony that China and Cambodia are important countries in the region with responsibility for safeguarding security and prosperity.

He added that China promotes the development of peace in the world and pursues a policy of defense – not hegemony, or perpetual expansion or influence.

The United States is committed to working with partners in the region to support a common vision for freedom and openness in the Indo-Pacific, Arzate told RFA via email on Thursday when asked about Tea Banh’s remarks. 

Translated by Sok Ry Sum. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster.

Faced with ever-widening censorship at home, Hong Kong filmmakers are increasingly taking their creativity to an international audience, showing an uncut version of their city beyond the reach of a security law criminalizing criticism of the authorities.

“Toeing red lines has never been easy, and less so as they become increasingly vague, bordering on nonexistence,” according to the organizers of Hong Kong Film Festival U.K., which screened films by a number of directors who have run afoul of the authorities amid a citywide crackdown on dissent in the wake of the 2019 protest movement.

The festival program included a series of five short films “reimagining the city in a dark and dangerous light … cast in the shadows of the anti-extradition protests and of the pandemic,” as well as work by director Kiwi Chow, one of the few directors who still calls Hong Kong home, despite having his film “Revolution of Our Times” banned from public screenings.

Film censorship had already been seen in the city even before the 2019 protest movement erupted in response to its vanishing freedoms, with movie theaters in Hong Kong suddenly dropping the dystopian short-film compilation “10 Years” as early as 2016.

Since the national security law took effect on July 1, 2020, many more creative offerings have fallen victim to political censorship, including a rap track by Hong Kong artist JB cursing the city’s police force for its treatment of protesters in 2019, and Chow’s film about the protest movement, which was screened instead at Cannes in 2021.

Obstacles and barriers

Chow told festival-goers in London on March 31 that he has faced barriers to funding, as well as to hiring actors and booking locations in Hong Kong since he made “Revolution of Our Times,” with actors’ agencies refusing to do business with him and major film studios closing their doors to his work.

Location bookings were also affected, with venue owners wanting assurances that the finished film “won’t violate the national security law,” he said, adding that actors are increasingly being asked to sign promises that they won’t take work that violates the law, which criminalizes peaceful political opposition and public dissent.

“One actor tried to protest against this, because they wanted to take part in my film, but his previous co-producer knew he was considering my project and threatened him, saying he would cut all of his scenes from a movie they had shot together,” Chow told the forum, titled “Hong Kong’s Deteriorating Artistic Freedom.”

“So he wound up not being in my movie,” he said.

Asked if there is any creative freedom left in Hong Kong, Chow replies: “It’s already lost, of course,” he said. “Will it get worse? It’s hard for me to predict, but the loss has definitely already happened.”

“It used to be so free, maybe more so than a lot of Western countries,” Chow said, “but now it has gone back 20 years.”

He appears undeterred, however, and his international success continues despite the restrictions back home.

His segment, “Self-Immolation,” from “10 Years” (2015) won the Best Film award at the Hong Kong Film Awards, while “Revolution of Our Times” was invited to premiere at the Cannes Film Festival and won the Best Documentary award at the 58th Golden Horse Awards in Taiwan.

Chilling effect on creativity

Meanwhile, film music arranger Adrian Chow said musicians and singers have also been targeted for political censorship, with event organizers required to answer a slew of questions and guarantee that no anti-government content would be performed before being granted a temporary entertainment license by the Food and Environmental Hygiene Department.

Officials wanted to know how organizers would respond if audience members started chanting banned slogans or engaging in “other behavior detrimental to national security,” and whether they would cooperate with police if they did, he told the forum.

Such requirements have a chilling effect on creative freedom, Adrian Chow said.

“The government quite openly seeks to influence creative performances and activities, and will make trouble for event organizers, so they will remember not to book politically sensitive performers in future,” he said. 

“They want to sow fear, so people believe that the government really will take action, and even involve the national security police,” Adrian Chow said. “In this way, creative freedom is affected by self-censorship.”

Fellow director Lam Sun, who continues to make films about Hong Kong from the U.K., agreed, saying the fear has also recently spread to sports associations, who are being targeted after organizers played out the protest anthem Glory to Hong Kong in error at recent international fixtures, instead of China’s national anthem, the March of the Volunteers.

“Hong Kong teachers also have to watch out for potential complaints about their teaching materials,” said Lam, whose first solo feature film “The Narrow Road”, received the Best Original Film Music at Golden Horse Awards 2022, and the Best Director and Best Actor awards at the 29th Hong Kong Film Critics Society Awards, along with 10 nominations in the 41st Hong Kong Film Awards.

Everyone in Hong Kong has to consider how to face up to this rule of fear, faced with “vaguely defined red lines,” he said.

Kiwi Chow called on Hong Kong’s creative workers to be tenacious in holding onto their artistic vitality and inner freedom.

“I personally don’t care whether the environment I’m in is free or not,” he said. “There is still freedom in the struggles that take place in the inner world of a creative person, so I don’t focus on the external loss of freedom, but on myself.”

“I think Hong Kong filmmakers have very strong vitality, and if they think their movie won’t get past the censors, they will take it overseas,” he said. “Creativity is about taking risks.”

Translated by Luisetta Mudie. Edited by Malcolm Foster.

Last month, a court in Shanghai handed a seven-year jail term to Ruan Xiaohuan, the author of a programming and politics blog who evaded government detection for around 12 years, after finding him guilty of “incitement to subvert state power.” The 46-year-old author of the formerly anonymous blog ProgramThink, hosted on Blogger.com, was detained by the authorities in May 2021 after publishing several posts on evading the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s internet censorship and tracking protocols. His wife, who gave only the surname Bei, spoke to RFA’s Mandarin Service in a recent interview about her reasons for appealing his conviction to the People’s High Court in Shanghai:

Bei: The appeal was lodged with the Shanghai People’s High Court on Feb. 22. On Feb. 20, I hired Beijing lawyer Mo Shaoping and another lawyer from his law firm surnamed Shang. They are his defense lawyers. First of all, they got in touch with the court of first instance, and were told by Judge Guan that the case had already been passed to the High Court. My lawyers now need to submit their credentials before they can go and read the case files. But they haven’t been able to get a hold of [the judge there].

RFA: Have the lawyers managed to meet with Ruan in the detention center?

Bei: No, they haven’t. The detention center has refused to let them meet with him, saying there are laws, and a process that has to be followed. I finally got in touch with [the judge], who told me that the High Court has informed the detention center with an official letter that Ruan already has lawyers, so no other lawyers are to be permitted to meet with him.

RFA: What is your aim here?

Bei: I think the fact that they based this incitement charge on stuff he wrote, is basically unjust. It was not [incitement], and yet they not only accused him of a crime – they accused him of a very serious crime. There is nothing in the judgment against him, no mention of any of his writings, that adds up to a charge of incitement to subvert state power. They claim that he wrote these things over a prolonged period, that they had a very damaging social impact. All of those things are highly dubious. Also, they haven’t returned to me my husband’s Huawei smartphone and two of his notebook computers, which aren’t even listed as confiscated property, which raises questions about the reliability, seriousness and probity of their evidence.

RFA: So you want to see this conviction overturned?

Bei: That’s right.

RFA: Where was Ruan detained?

Bei: He had been in Shanghai the whole time, and he was detained in Shanghai and taken away from our home.

RFA: How do you think they found out his identity?

Bei: All I know is that the internet connection at our home had been extremely unstable for a couple of years prior to his detention. It was forever cutting out. They had him and our whole family under surveillance for the last five months prior to his detention. Eventually, I heard from a neighbor that they had set up a monitoring station on the eighth floor of our building. Also, there were surveillance cameras pointing at us the entire time from an apartment in the building opposite ours. I think they must have been gathering evidence during those few months. They didn’t have a search warrant when they searched our apartment. They searched it first, then they applied for the search warrant. 

RFA: What was Ruan’s job before he was detained?

Bei: He left the industry in 2012, but before that, he was an information security engineer. He had been a … chief technological officer [in a company]. He was the engineer in charge of overall network security for the 2008 Olympic Games [in Beijing]. He kept everything a secret from his family, so we didn’t know when he got detained what he had been doing to prompt these charges. We only found out at the trial. But there was still a great deal that we didn’t know as the language wasn’t very clear, so I had to go and find that out. 

RFA: Have you seen Ruan since his detention?

Bei: They don’t allow family members to visit detainees under Chinese Criminal Law, only lawyers. So the trial was the first time I had seen him since his detention.

RFA: And how did he seem to you?

Bei: He was incredibly thin. I would never had believed he could get so thin. His hair had mostly turned gray. As the court police were leading him away after the sentencing — I was completely shocked at how heavy the sentence was — he looked back and held my gaze the entire time, and I saw a huge change in his eyes — he was asking me for help. I think the sentence came as quite a surprise to him, too. 

RFA: So, do you believe that there was no case to answer?

Bei: It was such a heavy sentence, given that the only evidence given was the things he had written. They also accused him of libel, rumor-mongering, but I didn’t see anything in his writings that amounted to those things … nor that he had incited anyone to subvert state power. Which post were they talking about? Did they mean that all of his posts were incitement to subversion? 

When they said he had done this over a prolonged period, how did they calculate that length of time? Was it from when he started blogging? I don’t understand what a damaging impact is supposed to mean either, whether the content was damaging, or the fact that he posted it was damaging. It’s hard to figure out what they mean here. 

As his family member, of course I want the conviction overturned, and for him to be released. But I believe in the legal process, and I think that has to happen with due process and be based on the material facts of the case, on the evidence. I think it was illegal for them not to allow his lawyers to represent him. A defendant should have the right to a legal defense, no matter what crime they are accused of. If the family was able to hire their own lawyers, we could rest assured that he would get a fair defense, that the prosecution and the defense could both make their cases to the court, and … arrive at justice within the law. 

The court is supposed to judge impartially — how can they get to decide about our lawyers? It’s very simple — in our appeal to the High Court, we are asking the court for a just outcome. The machinery is all there, so it should be able to deliver justice.

Translated by Luisetta Mudie.

A government plan to close two thriving markets in Vientiane for renovation ahead of the Lao capital’s hosting of the ASEAN Summit next year has angered vendors who say they’ll have nowhere to sell their goods and fear a spike in rent when they reopen.

Other stall owners told Radio Free Asia that the teardowns will destroy the historic significance of the Khua Dine and Sihom Night markets and damage their tourism appeal, as the two sites are fixtures on the itineraries of visitors from abroad.

Developers announced that the sites would close around April 25 to be made cleaner and more convenient for both vendors and visitors. Construction is likely to take 10-12 months, vendors said.

Authorities said the Sihom Night Market, which has about 300 stalls and is also known as Hengboun Food and Culture Street, was “crowded and unorganized,” and that vendors obstructed traffic and created large amounts of garbage. Also, it lacked toilets for visitors.

“We must tidy up the city to help facilitate the same,” Nantha Sanuvong, deputy director of the Department of Industry and Commerce Vientiane Capital, said at a press conference. He said the renovation was related to the 2024 ASEAN Summit and other “important conferences starting in April.” 

To spruce up the city before the summit, officials are also planning to bury unsightly telephone lines and crack down on noise pollution.

What to do in the meantime?

One merchant at Sihom said the government acted too hastily to shut it down, giving them only a day or two’s notice.

“At least the government should have found a new place for us before the closure,” said the merchant, who declined to be named for his own safety. “Now we have nowhere to sell.”

“The Sihom Night Market is popular among tourists,” he added. “If officials make us set up shop somewhere else, we’re afraid that not as many tourists will come to buy as they do here.”

At the Khua Dine Market, some of the roughly 100 owners welcomed the renovation plans. But many others said the closure will destroy their livelihoods and expressed frustration that no accommodations were made for their businesses.

“Merchants will have to wait at least 10 months to a year for the work to finish,” said one stall owner, speaking to RFA on condition of anonymity.

During that time, “merchants won’t have another location to sell their products” and will be forced to find a space at other markets, which would require a large up-front deposit that few have access to.

And although merchants who leave their deposit with Khua Dine’s developer, Lieng Heng Enterprise Commercial Management, will have priority to set up their stalls again when the renovation is complete, those who cash their deposit out will have no guarantee that they can return, the stall owner said.

Another merchant told Radio Free Asia that he is worried Khua Dine’s developer will raise the rent for stalls once the market reopens.

“This market is a popular landmark – everybody knows it very well,” he said. “After renovation, it will be clean and modern, but we’re afraid that they will increase the rent to a level that we can’t

afford.”

Losing charm

The renovation of Khua Dine might make the market too sterile, others worried, saying the chaotic early morning bustle at the market is part of its charm. They urged developers to refrain from razing the older structures, which they said are part of the 50-year-old market’s historical significance.

“The Lao people have important memories of [the market], as it is a place where families have bought groceries over many generations,” said a resident of the area near Khua Dine on Nongboun Road, close to the Vientiane Center shopping mall.

“Also, most of the merchandise at the market is wholesale,” he added, meaning that shoppers will find it difficult to find affordably priced items elsewhere.

Others bemoaned the loss of revenue from tourists, who visit the market in droves to buy souvenirs and locally-produced goods.

Police will be patrolling the area around Hengboun Road to ensure that all stalls have been dismantled. If any vendors remain open, they will be given a written warning, and those who continue to operate after that will be given a fine and have their goods confiscated.

Translated by Sidney Khotpanya. Edited by Josh Lipes and Malcolm Foster.

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen departs the United States on Thursday after an eventful trip that appeared to shore up her island’s relationship with Washington but prompted threats of a “confrontation” from Beijing.

But she arrives home just in time to meet another U.S. congressional delegation – this time, led by House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Michael McCaul, who on Wednesday night landed in Taipei and compared Chinese President Xi Jinping to Adolf Hitler.

“This struggle for global power, the balance of power that we find ourselves in today often reminds me of my father’s generation, often referred to as the greatest in the United States,” McCaul, a Republican from Texas, said at a meeting with Tsai’s vice-president, Lai Ching-te.

“Then we had Hitler and today we have Putin and Chairman Xi,” he said, also referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Tsai is scheduled to meet with McCaul and his bipartisan delegation on Saturday – her third such meeting in little over a week, following talks with a cross-party group led by Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries last Thursday in New York and her high-profile meeting with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in Los Angeles on Wednesday.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin then arrives in Taiwan on April 24 for a six-day trade mission, which also includes a meeting with Tsai.

The trips are set to further anger Beijing, which considers the self-governing island a province and has vowed to “reunite” it with the mainland, by force if necessary. In August, it cut off all cooperation with Washington after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit.

Blockade soft-launch

Tsai will likely consider her trip to the United States a success, said Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, even if it means the U.S.-China relationship is now “dangerously fraught.”

“U.S.-Taiwan relations are stronger than ever. Support for Taiwan in the U.S. Congress is at an all-time high,” Glaser said. “For these reasons, President Tsai is likely to see the transit as a success.” 

Yet the “mistrust is deep” between Beijing and Washington, she noted, and it was not helped by Tsai’s “warm reception” in America. “Not only is a thaw unlikely but the risk of conflict is growing,” she said.

Efforts to repair U.S.-China ties have fizzled since Pelosi’s trip.

Hours before Secretary of State Antony Blinken was set to leave Washington for a visit to Beijing in February, he called off the trip after an alleged Chinese spying balloon was found in U.S. airspace. 

Then in the week before Tsai’s March 29 arrival in New York, Rick Waters – deputy U.S. assistant secretary of state for China and Taiwan and the head of the State Department’s “China House” – met Chinese officials in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Beijing to rekindle talks.

But Tsai’s trip seems to have again nixed a detente.

As the Taiwanese leader met McCarthy, China’s navy launched aircraft carriers into the Western Pacific just south of Taiwan, with Beijing accusing the United States of “crossing the line” with Tsai’s trip.

In an apparent trial of a blockade of the island – which some U.S. military planners consider Beijing’s most likely first-move in a conflict – Chinese officials also announced they will for the next three weeks stop and board ships in the Taiwan Strait for “on-site inspections.” 

Taiwan, in turn, instructed any ships to refuse to cooperate.

European oversight

There’s one saving grace for cross-strait peace.

While McCaul and other American lawmakers are in Taiwan, China has its own visitors: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanual Macron arrived in Beijing and on Thursday met with Xi as Tsai was preparing to fly home.

Amid such a visit, “it would not be in Beijing’s strategic interest to use egregiously escalatory military action,” said Wen-Ti Sung, a lecturer at the Australian National University’s Taiwan Studies program.

“If Beijing seriously raises military tension at this juncture,” Sung said, “it would make life very difficult for Von der Leyen and Macron, and take the wind out of the sails of European China dove voices.”

“Europe would rather not see the Taiwan Strait situation escalate, for they are already busy with Ukraine and post-COVID economic recovery,” he added, explaining that McCarthy and Tsai seemed to have read the room by shifting their meeting away from Taiwan.

“In other words, Taiwan and the U.S. are already choosing the relatively less provocative option,” he said. “If in response, Beijing still chooses to retaliate … then the U.S. and Taiwan will paint a picture of insatiable Beijing that no one can work with.”

There’s also the recent mirror-image visit by Tsai’s predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou, to mainland China while Tsai was in the United States.

Ma’s Kuomintang party, which campaigns its greater willingness to cooperate with Beijing in pursuit of peace than Tsai’s party, hopes to win back the presidency in the January 2024 election, with Lai, the vice-president, expected to carry the baton for the ruling party.

“If Beijing escalates militarily, it will waste away this rare opportunity to underscore cross-strait friendship, in exchange for chipping away the success of President Tsai’s U.S. trip ever so slightly,” Sung said. 

One country, two systems

In the long-term, Tsai’s trip has laid bare a gulf between Beijing, on the one hand, and the United States and Taiwan, on the other.

Ja Ian Chong, a professor of international relations and expert in Chinese foreign policy at the National University of Singapore, said the Taiwanese appetite for a rapprochement with Beijing was fading.

In Taiwan, he said, “efforts to cast Tsai’s U.S. visits as unnecessarily risky by the opposition Kuomintang also do not seem to have gained much traction.” That failure, Chong added, was largely “in keeping with a broad popular acceptance in Taiwan of the current direction of travel in relations between Taipei and Washington.”

Beijing, meanwhile, has not minced its own words. Xi himself pledged in October never to renounce the use of force on Taiwan, and U.S. military leaders have predicted an invasion by the decade’s close.

“We will not allow any foreign force to bully, suppress or enslave us,” Hua Chunying, a foreign ministry spokesperson, said after Pelosi’s trip last year. “Whoever wants to do so will be on a collision course with the Great Wall of steel forged by the 1.4 billion Chinese people.”

Along with the ever closer ties between the U.S. Congress and Taiwan’s leaders, that’s all a problem for America’s “One China” policy, which holds that the island should govern itself while a peaceful reunification with mainland China is negotiated with Beijing.

The idea is for the United States “to kick the can down the road” until one day “the people of Taiwan would actually endorse some sort of arrangement that would unify China,” said Dennis Wilder, a former CIA deputy assistant director for East Asia and the Pacific.

But that seems increasingly unviable.

“One of the very clear messages you get when you go to Taiwan these days is that they do not accept ‘One country, two systems,’” Wilder said. “They’ve seen the way Beijing behaved with Hong Kong – they think that Beijing betrayed the people of Hong Kong.”

“At this point, they want no part of any kind of arrangement where Beijing makes promises that they don’t believe they would keep,” he added. “The big concern I have is: Will Beijing lose its patience?”

Edited by Malcolm Foster.