Asean Tribune

Ethnic rebels and militiamen engaged in 265 armed clashes with Myanmar junta forces in September, killing nearly 300 national soldiers in Kayin and Kayah states, officials from the groups said Wednesday, amid an intensified effort by ethnic soldiers to resist the military regime that overthrew the elected government eight months ago.

The powerful Myanmar military ousted the democratically elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government on Feb. 1, claiming the party had stolen the country’s November 2020 ballot through voter fraud.

Fighting against military forces escalated across the nation after the shadow National Unity Government (NUG) on Sept. 7 declared a nationwide state of emergency and called for open rebellion against junta rule.

The move by the group of ousted NLD politicians, activists, and representatives from ethnic minority groups, sparked an escalation of attacks on military targets by various allied pro-democracy militias and ethnic armed groups. The number of civilians displaced by the violence numbers in the hundreds of thousands, and aid workers face a humanitarian crisis.

The central committee of the Karen National Union, a political group with an armed wing, which represents the ethnic Karen people in mountainous eastern Myanmar’s Kayin state, said that the clashes fought by armed groups under its umbrella resulted in 234 deaths of junta soldiers and five ethnic troops. Ten KNU soldiers were injured as well.

Lt. Col. Saw Kalae Do of the Karen National Liberation Army’s (KNLA) 5th Brigade told RFA that 215 of the clashes occurred in the territory controlled by the brigade, with fighting occurring on an almost daily basis in September because Myanmar soldiers had become more aggressive in expending their territory and securing troop reinforcements.

“For us, we have to maintain the control of our territory, so there were shootouts between the two forces,” he said. “There were armed engagements almost every day.”

“If they hadn’t provoked us, we would not have responded,” he added.

The KNLA saw far fewer casualties from the clashes because its soldiers are familiar with the terrain and have better guerilla combat skills than national forces, Saw Kalae Do said.

National soldiers fired more than 160 rounds of heavy artillery in the brigade’s territory, injuring three civilians, he added.

In August, there were 130 armed engagements in which 118 military soldiers died and 68 others were injured, though there were no casualties among the KNLA troops, Saw Kalae Do said.

RFA could not independently confirm the number of casualties.

In neighboring Kayah state, Karenni National Defense Force (KNDF) militia engaged in at least 14 clashes with Myanmar troops in the past few months, with 40 national troops and three Karenni soldiers killed, said a KNDF official who declined to be named.

Now the fighting could intensify after national forces brought about 500 more troops into the area, the KNDF official said.

“Future fighting will depend on the actions of the military council troops,” he said. “There could be some of the biggest fighting in a month or it could cool down to the level of regular fighting, but I think there are more prospects for the former.”

Junta forces set fire to at least 55 civilian homes, killed two civilians, and critically injured two others during the September clashes, KNDF officials said, though RFA could not independently confirm the number of causalities.

RFA could not reach junta spokesman Maj. Gen Zaw Min Tun for comment.

Political analyst Than Soe Naing said fighting across Myanmar would intensify with civilians forming defense forces to fight alongside the ethnic armed groups while the volunteer People’s Defense Force, the armed wing of the National Unity Government that has declared itself to be the legitimate government of Myanmar, battle junta soldiers in central Myanmar.

“This fighting will only be the beginning,” he said. “We are heading towards a nationwide civil war. That’s why these clashes are not decisive wars. The real decisive wars are forthcoming.”

Reported by RFA’s Myanmar Service. Translated by Ye Kaung Myint Maung. Written in English by Roseanne Gerin.

Vietnamese authorities on Monday arrested a Facebook user, charging him with “abusing freedom and democracy” for writing a series of online posts they said had defamed the country’s leaders, state media reported on Monday.

Vo Hoang Tho, 36 years old and a resident of the Ninh Kieu district of southern Vietnam’s Can Tho City, had published 47 posts on his Minh Long Facebook page criticizing government efforts to prevent and control the spread of COVID-19 in the one-party communist state, media sources said.

Containment efforts, including community lockdowns and other harsh restrictions, are widely unpopular in Vietnam, and Tho’s arrest was just the latest in a continuing crackdown on Facebook users who use the popular social media platform to voice dissenting views.

Can Tho City’s Investigation Agency said Tho had formerly worked as a journalist but did not identify the media organization for which he worked.

RFA has reported nearly 30 cases in which Vietnamese citizens have been arrested for political offenses over social media posts since the beginning of this year. Among those now serving sentences for Facebook posts are journalists, bloggers, and another citizen who had posted complaints about coronavirus policies.

On Sept. 10, Vietnamese authorities arrested and charged a woman with “carrying out activities to overthrow the government,” making her the third person apprehended this year for joining an  exile Vietnamese organization called a terrorist group by Hanoi, according to state media reports.

Le Thi Kim Phi, 62, had used a Facebook profile under the name Phi Kim to connect with members of the Provisional Government of Vietnam, a U.S.-based opposition group, said the investigation division of southern An Gian province’s police department.

And on Sept. 8, authorities in Can Tho indicted five journalists from the Bao Sach (Clean Newspaper) Facebook-based news outlet for publishing reports and videos dealing with politically sensitive social issues.

Vietnam’s already low tolerance of dissent deteriorated sharply last year with a spate of arrests of independent journalists, publishers, and Facebook personalities as authorities continued to stifle critics in the run-up to the ruling Communist Party Congress in January. But arrests continue in 2021.

Reported by RFA’s Vietnamese Service. Translated by Anna Vu. Written in English by Richard Finney.

Malaysia said Wednesday it would open talks with Myanmar’s shadow government if the junta fails to cooperate with ASEAN’s conflict resolution efforts – the first such declaration by a member of the regional bloc.

ASEAN members meanwhile were discussing excluding Myanmar from an upcoming summit because he had “backtracked” on a pact to restore peace and democracy, the bloc’s special envoy said, days after Malaysia advocated the move in public comments that a junta spokesman dismissed as “personal remarks.”

Wong Chen, a Malaysian lawmaker, asked Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah in parliament whether Kuala Lumpur would begin a dialogue with the civilian National Unity Government (NUG) in Myanmar, if the junta barred the ASEAN envoy from talking to all parties.

“[T]he process to implement the five-point consensus is still being worked on with whatever that is humanly possible, by the special envoy,” Saifuddin said.

“If that does not happen … I believe what was raised by the MP … can be done if what was agreed in the consensus cannot be achieved.”

When it ousted the elected government in a coup on Feb. 1, the Burmese military claimed that voter fraud had led to a landslide victory for civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy. The junta threw her and members of the NLD government in jail.

The junta also got security forces to turn the guns onto their own people when thousands of pro-democracy protesters took to the streets around the country after the coup. Close to 1,060 Burmese, mostly anti-coup protesters – have been killed by the forces in the eight months since.

Min Aung Hlaing, the junta chief in ASEAN member-state Myanmar, had agreed to the five-point consensus during an in-person meeting with Southeast Asian leaders in Jakarta on April 24. The points include stopping violence, a commitment to dialogue with all parties, and an ASEAN emissary to conduct this dialogue.

In Kuala Lumpur, Saifuddin told parliament that ASEAN’s special envoy to Myanmar, while briefing foreign ministers of the bloc on Monday, had said Naypyidaw was not cooperating on the consensus.

If that continues, some stern steps need to be taken, the Malaysian foreign minister said.

‘Saifuddin is doing the right thing’

On Monday, Saifuddin had recommended the first of these steps, when he forcefully and clearly said that if no progress was made on the ASEAN consensus, Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing should be excluded from the bloc’s upcoming summit, scheduled for Oct. 26-28.

The Malaysian minister got ASEAN listening.

Erywan Yusof, the ASEAN envoy to Myanmar, told reporters on Wednesday that ASEAN was seriously considering disinviting Min Aung Hlaing to its summit.

“I can say that we are now deeply in discussion on this matter,” Erywan said during a press conference in Bandar Seri Begawan.

He did say other ASEAN members had raised the same idea, but analysts noted earlier this week that a strong public statement, such as Malaysia’s, would put pressure on ASEAN as a bloc.

Even the Myanmar junta spokesman saw the idea as Malaysia’s, when Radio Free Asia (RFA), a sister entity of BenarNews, asked him about it on Tuesday.

“This is just his personal remark,” junta spokesman Zaw Min Tun told RFA, referring to Foreign Minister Saifuddin.

“It’s not ASEAN’s stance, because it would need a consensus. … So the remarks you mentioned have to be taken as just personal remarks.” 

One regional political analyst, Oh Ei Sun, commended Malaysia’s top diplomat for speaking out on the issue of excluding the Myanmar junta chief from the summit as wel, saying that he would talk to the Burmese shadow government.

“Saifuddin is doing the right thing: ramping up the pressure on the recalcitrant junta,” Oh, from the Institute of International Affairs in Singapore, told BenarNews, an RFA-affiliated online news service.

“Now the junta is likely to be not so friendly to Malaysian investments and businesses there. But that is the price to pay for diplomatic leadership. Malaysia must also persuade like-minded ASEAN countries to take similar strong stand. Indonesia for example …”

To recognize Myanmar’s parallel civilian government would pay ASEAN dividends, according to another Southeast Asia analyst, Azmi Hassan.

“ASEAN countries threatening to recognize NUG will put pressure on the military junta to uphold the promise they made in April to ASEAN,” he told BenarNews.

“While it will make the junta angry, ASEAN will gain a strong dialog partner by engaging with the NUG.”

‘Myanmar had to step aside’

ASEAN envoy Erywan, in his remarks Wednesday, said that Myanmar had yet to respond to his request for “meeting all parties concerned,” including the imprisoned civilian government leaders, as agreed to in the five-point consensus.

“…the concern is that there seems to be, up until Monday and even until today actually, no progress on the implementation of the five-point consensus,” Erywan said, referring to the ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting earlier this week.

This had raised a concern, he said, because the junta chief had committed with other ASEAN leaders to the consensus back in April.

“It is tantamount to basically backtracking,” Erywan said.

But junta spokesman Zaw Min Tun told RFA “it would be very difficult for us to hold talks with those from groups we have declared illegal” or who are under trial.

“I have never heard of any governments allowing foreign delegates to meet with a person under trial or a person or representatives of illegal organizations, except in very special circumstances,” he said.

He was referring to jailed NLD members, including Aung San Suu Kyi.

RFA asked the junta spokesman how it would affect Myanmar’s military government if its chief were to be barred from the summit.

“Apart from some criticisms in the international community, there won’t be any [consequences],” he said.

“There might be, more or less, some repercussions on certain ASEAN projects or meetings or work being carried out in conjunction with other countries.”

Reported by BenarNews, an RFA-affiliated online news service.

Anti-junta forces in central Myanmar attacked a 50-vehicle military convoy Tuesday, killing more than 40 soldiers and injuring 30 others, members of the militia told RFA.

The Yaw Defense Force (YDF), one of many People’s Defense Force (PDF) militia groups that sprung up to resist the military after it ousted the country’s democratically elected government in a coup d’état on Feb. 1, told RFA that in the attack they used a series of 14 remote control landmines near Gangaw township in the Magway region, along the Gangaw-Kalay Highway, which connects Magway with the western Chin state and northern Sagaing region.

“The Gangaw-Kalay Highway is a strategic route, and it would be difficult for the military if this road would be cut off… They would have to send food and supplies by air,” a member of the YDF told RFA’s Myanmar Service Wednesday.

“When the rains are gone, they won’t be able to use the waterways because the rivers will be dried up. So they need this road to go up into the mountains of Chin state,” the YDF member said.

RFA was not able to independently verify the exact number of casualties in the attack.

Junta spokesperson Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun confirmed to RFA that a convoy was attacked with landmines near in Gangaw township but said that only two vehicles were damaged, and a few soldiers were injured.

Nearby residents told RFA that fighting between the military and the YDF and its allies had intensified in recent days.

Sources close to the military last week told RFA that the junta had been sending armored vehicles, artillery, and attack helicopters to its forces in Gagnaw in hopes of gaining a tactical advantage.

Though the Gangaw-Kalay Highway is normally very busy, a resident of Gangaw told RFA on condition of anonymity that fighting caused traffic to come to a complete standstill.

“We heard they are conducting a military operation along Kalay-Gangaw road… The pressure is on the PDFs because of the large presence of troops in the area, there are frequent clashes. Travelling in the area is difficult now as cars are not allowed to leave the city,” said the Gagnaw resident.

She said the flow of goods has been disrupted and commodity prices have skyrocketed. Living conditions have deteriorated and businesses have been shuttered.

Fighting has also intensified in neighboring Kalay in the Sagaing region.

The Kalay PDF said nine government soldiers died on October 4 when the militias attacked a convoy of 10 military vehicles which had stopped near a crossing at the Pan Mon Chaung Bridge to search for mines.

A Kalay resident, who spoke on condition of anonymity said junta troops have now set up checkpoints and sentry posts all along Gangaw-Kalay Road, and more are coming in large numbers from the Magway region, forcing residents to flee the heavy fighting.

“A lot of military vehicles are coming towards Gangaw. The whole population is holding its breath and waiting, as the junta appears to be set to take total control of Kalay-Gangaw region,” the Kalay resident said.

“People are all scared and worried about the increasing military presence in our area. The situation is very bad. If they stay here, it will be very difficult for us,” the resident said.

Residents in the Sagaing and Magway regions and Chin State are panicking as the military has shut down internet access in the area and is sending in massive reinforcements. They fear a major operation is looming over the horizon, and local PDF groups are also preparing for the impending battles, sources said.

Military spokesman Maj.Gen. Zaw Min Tun confirmed that the military was taking control of the area due to the rising number of casualties.

Reported by RFA’s Myanmar Service. Translated by Khin Maung Nyane. Written in English by Eugene Whong.

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will have the capacity for a “full-scale invasion” of Taiwan by 2025, the democratic island’s defense minister warned on Wednesday.

Taiwan defense minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said the PLA already has the capability now to invade Taiwan, which the U.S. has pledge to “assist” to defend itself.

But China will be capable of limiting the cost to itself of a “full-scale invasion” by 2025, Chiu told the Legislative Yuan’s foreign affairs, defense and finance committee.

He described the current situation across the Taiwan Strait as “really the grimmest I have seen in more than 40 years of military service.”

The Taiwan defense ministry said it is investing in weaponry capable of “long-range strikes,” with a defensive focus, creating heavy-duty deterrence.

The Legislative Yuan session reviewed Taiwan’s military budget proposals, which include a U.S.$8.57 billion upgrade for the country’s navy and air force.

Under the plan, 64 percent of spending will be allocated to domestically produced anti-ship weapons, with slightly more than half of that amount including the fast-tracked development and procurement of the Hsiung Feng anti-ship missile system.

“The [ministry]’s plan to strengthen Taiwan’s sea and air defenses is likely a response to increased provocations, including recent Chinese activities within Taiwan’s territorial waters and incursions into its air defense identification zone (ADIZ),” Taiwan’s Central News Agency reported.

The PLA flew 150 aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ in the first five days of October, with 56 planes making incursions on Oct. 4 alone, the largest recorded number in a single day.

Chiu told the session that the incursions have stepped up psychological pressure on Taiwanese pilots who have to respond, although he said Taiwan wouldn’t fire first.

The U.S. warned on Monday that the incursions were destabilizing and risked “miscalculations,” calling on Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure and coercion against Taiwan.

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Wednesday that he had raised the issue with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

“I’ve spoken with Xi about Taiwan,” Biden said. “We agree…we will abide by the Taiwan agreement.”

Taiwan’s Presidential Office said in a statement that Washington has confirmed to Taipei that its policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged, although it was unclear what agreement Biden was referring to.

‘Catastrophic consequences’

Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen has warned of “catastrophic consequences” if China invades Taiwan.

In an Oct. 5 op-ed article in the Foreign Affairs journal, Tsai warned: “If Taiwan were to fall, the consequences would be catastrophic for regional peace and the democratic alliance system.”

“It would signal that in today’s global contest of values, authoritarianism has the upper hand over democracy,” she said, adding that Taiwan is on the front line of a global struggle between liberal democracy and authoritarianism.

She said Taiwan is committed to modernizing and reorganizing its own military, including mobile land-based antiship cruise missiles, and will launch an all-out training and recruitment drive for a military reserve in 2022.

“Such initiatives are meant to maximize Taiwan’s self-reliance and preparedness and to signal that we are willing to bear our share of the burden and don’t take our security partners’ support for granted,” Tsai wrote.

“Taiwan does not seek military confrontation … But if its democracy and way of life are threatened, [it] will do whatever it takes to defend itself,” she said.

Translated and edited by Luisetta Mudie.

Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam on Wednesday vowed to extend a citywide crackdown on anyone trying to “destabilize” the city and oppose China, with new laws in the pipeline targeting the media and online service providers, as well as expanded definitions of “espionage” and “terrorism.”

Lam also called for a new urban area near the border and a second high-speed rail link to neighboring Shenzhen, in line with ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) plans to integrate Hong Kong and Macau into the Pearl River delta “Bay Area,” vowing to release more land for development in the process.

Lam said the authorities “have spared no effort to fulfil our responsibility to prevent, suppress, and punish acts and activities that endanger national security in accordance with the law.”

But she added that “there is still a substantial amount of work” to be done, citing further national security legislation under Article 23 of the Basic Law “to prevent those who are opposed to China and attempt to destabilize Hong Kong from taking advantage of the situation to mislead the public with ill intentions.”

The national security law, which took effect on July 1, 2020, ushered in an ongoing and citywide crackdown on all forms of public dissent and political opposition, with election rules changed to ensure only pro-CCP candidates can run and dozens of former opposition lawmakers now behind bars on “subversion” charges.

Lam said in her annual policy address on Wednesday that her administration will push ahead with further legislation on espionage and other “covert” activities to continue a crackdown on what Beijing insists was an attempt by hostile foreign powers to foment a “color revolution” in Hong Kong during the 2019 protest movement.

New laws will also be needed to “combat fake news” and “safeguard cybersecurity,” Lam said, with more regulations relating to “schools, social organizations, the media, and the internet.”

Oath-taking ceremonies for anyone holding public office will continue, she said. Dozens of pro-democracy politicians have been expelled from the Legislative Council (LegCo) and the District Council in recent months, after an administration official judged their oaths invalid.

Lam said forthcoming elections for her replacement and for LegCo in December would be run on the basis of “patriots administering Hong Kong.”

Electoral changes brought in after a landslide victory for pro-democracy candidates following months of mass popular protests will likely ensure that no pro-democracy candidates will be approved to run in the LegCo election, while the proportion of candidates chosen by a Beijing-backed committee has grown.

Lam welcomed the mass resignation of pro-democracy lawmakers in protest over the expulsion of their colleagues in late 2020.

“Since those members who opposed for the sake of opposing left LegCo in November last year, the current legislative session has seen fruitful outcomes,” she said.

She said government broadcaster RTHK and LegCo have both been ordered to “show respect for the national flag, national emblem, and national anthem,” following a restructuring at RTHK that means program content is subject to the approval of a government-backed committee.

Civil servants will also be given further training at senior level in “national studies,” with visits to mainland China, Lam said.

Developing the border area

Lam also discussed plans for greater social and economic integration with neighboring Shenzhen, unveiling projects to develop the border area into a “a metropolitan area” of 300 square kilometers.

She also announced plans for a new cross-border Hong Kong-Shenzhen Western Railway linking Hung Shui Kiu to the special economic zone of Qianhai, another part of the economic integration plan.

Democratic Party chairman Lo Kin-hei said Lam’s policy address wasn’t aimed at Hong Kong’s seven million residents, but at her bosses in Beijing.

“The main audience for this policy address wasn’t the people of Hong Kong, but the central government [in Beijing],” Lo told reporters. “She’s fighting to get re-elected [by Beijing’s supporters], not for the support of the people.”

Hong Kong media quoted government sources as saying that a new cybersecurity law will regulate water and electricity suppliers, the Mass Transit Railway, and other large infrastructure service providers, who will be required to appoint a person responsible for ensuring security.

While details of Hong Kong’s new legislation have yet to be made public, some are concerned it will include legislation similar to that passed in Singapore on Oct. 4, which forces internet service providers to “avoid threats to national security and sovereignty.”

Singapore’s new legislation requires ISPs, social media platforms and website owners to provide data, block content and remove apps that spread “hostile” content.

‘Provisions too vague’

Zhuang Jiaying, associate professor of the Department of Political Science at the National University of Singapore, said many of the law’s provisions are too vague.

“The regulations talk about participation in matters of public controversy or political disputes, which is a bit vague,” Zhuang said. “One of the possible ways you can violate the law is ‘lowering confidence in the Singapore government,’ which is also a bit vague.”

“Some people are wondering whether the Prevention of Foreign Intervention Act is actually aimed at political opponents … as there is a lot of room for interpretation by administrative officials and law enforcement officers,” he said.

“Some of the interpretations are made at the policy level rather than at the legislative level, and can be changed at any time at the whim of the decision-maker of the day.”

Journalist Han Liying said she could be targeted under the law simply for receiving foreign funding, in a manner similar to the suppression of civil society under the national security law in Hong Kong.

“We have clarified many times that we have not participated in activities subject to foreign interference, but these clarifications are of no use,” she told RFA. “What I am worried about is that this law will give the ruling party more powers to go after my [organization], or other independent media and civil society organizations.”

“This bill is actually very easy to abuse,” Han said.

Zhuang said the new law on foreign interference gives the Singaporean government extra powers to regulate the internet, which weren’t in the city-state’s national security legislation.

Translated and edited by Luisetta Mudie.