Day: July 26, 2023

A key part of the AUKUS security pact aiming to create a “seamless” defense industry across Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States appears at risk after congressional Democrats raised doubts about Canberra’s ability to protect U.S. military designs from China.

The concerns were raised during a session of the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Wednesday, just days before U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin arrive in Brisbane, Australia, for talks with their Australian counterparts.

Democrats including Rep. Gregory Meeks of New York, the party’s ranking member on the committee, said that they opposed two bills introduced by the Republican majority to exempt Australia and the United Kingdom from the Arms Export Control Act of 1976.

The law created the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, or ITAR, which forces foreign entities, except for those in Canada, to apply for licenses when importing sensitive U.S. defense technology. 

Meeks argued that Australia and the United Kingdom could seek exemptions from the State Department under the standing law, and said a blanket exemption would circumvent important checks.

“Prematurely lifting them risks compromising our national security by allowing unfettered transfers of our most sensitive defense technology including to private-sector foreign firms, which risk exposure to or theft by our most capable adversaries, especially China,” he said.

The former committee chair pointed to Australian intelligence chief Mike Burgess’s comments earlier this year that more Australians are being targeted by foreign spies, due in part to the AUKUS pact.

“The U.K. faces similar intelligence threats,” he said.

Roadblocks

Experts in Australia have warned that the U.S. arms-control laws are a roadblock to the so-called “pillar 2” of the AUKUS pact, which aims to create a “seamless” defense industry across the three countries and could be hampered by bureaucracy without a blanket exemption.

Those concerns have been echoed by top Australian officials.

Australia’s ambassador in Washington, Kevin Rudd, told a forum in Washington last month that the so-called “pillar 2” of AUKUS “could be even more revolutionary than the submarine project in itself” but said it had a “complex process” ahead of it to get through Congress.

On Wednesday, Rep. Michael McCaul, a Republican from Texas who has served as chairman of the committee since the start of this year, said providing Australia and the United Kingdom similar exemptions as those given to Canada would cut “red tape” with minimal risks.

“This licensing exemption will add more submarine capabilities to the South China Sea as we see a more aggressive China on the march,” he said. “It also removes restrictions on innovation, and collaborating on quantum computing, autonomous vehicles and long range weapons.”

McCaul argued the 1976 law was “outdated” and from “a time when the U.S. dominated defense innovation in defense technology,” which he said was no longer. He noted the United States had “never denied a sale or license to Australia” after the lengthy approval process.

“Times have changed,” McCaul said, “and we now need to rely on our allies and partners, many of which out-innovate us in key areas.”

Five Eyes partner

Wearing a koala pin on her lapel, Rep. Young Kim, a Republican from California who introduced the bill for the exemption for Australia, said she could not understand the Democrats’ reluctance.

Kim, who titled the bill the “Keeping Our Allies Leading in Advancement Act,” or KOALA Act, said Australia had already proven itself a trusted partner as part of the Five Eyes intelligence pact that also includes Canada, the United Kingdom and New Zealand.

“Australia is one of our closest allies and is one of our Five Eyes partners. We let the Australians have access to some of the most sensitive intelligence we have,” Kim said. “So why shouldn’t we expedite collaboration with them on sensitive technologies?” 

It was disingenuous, the second-term lawmaker added, to “grant them access to some of our most sensitive intelligence but say we’re concerned that the Australians will let this technology fall into the hands of the CCP,” referring to the Communist Party of China.

Kim also tabled a July 24 letter in favor of “an expedited AUKUS process” that she said was signed by a number of Obama administration officials including former director of national intelligence James Clapper and former Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel.

McCaul summarized the letter as making the case “Australia has sufficient safeguards in place already” as a Five Eyes member, and dismissed the argument that Canberra and London can apply for Canada-like exemptions from the U.S. State Department.

“State will not issue the exemption,” he said. “State has shown it will never certify Australia or the U.K. for an exemption, because it does not want to give up its bureaucratic power over licensing.”

A State Department spokesperson declined to comment on the issue but pointed to May 24 testimony to the committee by Jessica Lewis, assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs, in which she suggested bulk approvals of AUKUS-related exemption requests.

“Every transfer between AUKUS partners will not be subject to case-by-case review, but will be pre-approved” if the case meets certain criteria laid out by the State Department, Lewis said at the time.

Charles Edel, the Australia chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Radio Free Asia he believed changes to the law were needed that protect U.S. defense secrets while also allowing Australian, American and British companies to collaborate easily.

He said the speed of the current approval process was the issue.

“The question surrounding export controls,” Edel said, “is not whether they work to exempt Australia and the United Kingdom from [licensing] key technologies, but whether they work fast enough or with enough certainty for businesses to make investments at scale.”

“Changes in legislation are needed to ensure that the U.S. can collaborate with our closest allies, while ensuring that appropriate safeguards are in place to protect our sensitive technology.”

Submarine deal safe

One rare area of agreement between Democrats and Republicans was on the deal to sell Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines to Australia by the end of the decade.

There was bipartisan support for the AUKUS Submarine Transfer Authorization Act, which forms the substance of “pillar 1” of AUKUS for the United States and United Kingdom to help Australia obtain, and then build and maintain, its own fleet of nuclear submarines, starting with the purchase of three from U.S. shipyards.

The deal has proven controversial in Australia due to its price, which will run into the hundreds of billions of dollars, as well as in the United States, due to the huge submarine backlog at shipyards.

But Meeks of the Democratic Party said the Biden administration was committed to “ensuring there are no adverse impacts on our navy or shipbuilding capacity,” while McCaul said the sale to Australia would help to “stimulate investment in our defense industrial base.”

Rep. Bill Huizenga, a Republican from Michigan, added that passage of the bill would lead to “$3 billion of investments from the Australians into the submarine base,” which would “help ease the production and maintenance backlog that plagues our submarine forces.”

He said there should be no doubts that the submarines will be delivered to Australia on time, even if U.S. shipyards were now only building “approximately 1.3 Virginia-class submarines each year.”

“Currently, the indications that industrial industry can deliver two Virginia-classes by the late 2020s are promising,” Huizenga said, “and I have complete faith that they will hit that mark with our support coming out of the House of Representatives and the Senate.”

Three days after Cambodia’s highly controlled national election, Prime Minister Hun Sen announced Wednesday he will step down and hand power to his eldest son, army chief Hun Manet. 

Hun Sen, 70, has ruled Cambodia since 1985, making him one of the longest serving leaders in the world. 

During those decades, Cambodia saw an end to civil war, rapid economic growth and a steep decrease in poverty. But Hun Sen’s strongman rule has also been marked by extreme corruption, resource depletion, violence and political repression.  

The July 23 election had no viable opposition and many saw it as smoothing the way for a power transfer. Immediately before the election Hun Sen told a Chinese television station that Hun Manet could become premier within a month.  

Will Hun Sen retain any power after the transfer? 

Hun Sen will take on several powerful positions. He will become president of the Senate, president of the Supreme Council of the King, and president of the CPP. As a result, Hun Sen may well be expected to control much behind the scenes. 

He will also continue on as honorary president of the recently formed Cambodia Oknha Association. By heading the group of wealthy tycoons, Hun Sen is expected to also wield a potent economic tool. 

Why is this happening now?

Hun Sen has variously promised to rule until 74, 90 and indefinitely. But in recent years he has spoken more about an eventual resignation. In 2021, he said Hun Manet would take over between 2028 and 2030. The announcement was officially endorsed by the party. 

Even though Hun Sen announced a weeks-long transfer timeline just before the election, many were surprised by the speed at which he’s moving to implement the transition. 

According to Hun Sen, Hun Manet will be appointed Aug. 10 and sworn in Aug. 22. There has been speculation that the shift is related to Hun Sen’s health or internal party conflicts, though there has been no definitive sign that either issue is the cause. It is also understood that Hun Sen wants the transfer to happen in time for his son to attend the UN General Assembly in early September.  

What is clear is that Hun Sen and the CPP are attempting to prevent as little turmoil as possible when Hun Manet takes over. CPP spokesman Sok Eysan told RFA that only a few ministers will stay on when the new government is formed later this month.  

Who is Hun Manet?

Hun Manet, 45, has been groomed for decades to take over the premiership. He was the first Cambodian to be admitted to the U.S.’s elite military academy West Point and later went on to get a doctorate in economics at the University of Bristol in the United Kingdom. 

A four-star general, Hun Manet has served in Cambodia’s military since 1995. He was the commander of the army until stepping down recently to run as a lawmaker for Phnom Penh. 

What are the expectations for Hun Manet’s rule?

Hun Sen built his public persona as an everyman — partly through famously lengthy, bombastic but often funny and rough speeches. In contrast, the western-educated and mild-mannered Hun Manet carefully curates his every statement, rarely betraying his true thoughts or feelings. 

The effect has been to make him a sort of inkblot test for Cambodia watchers. Optimists see in Hun Manet a closeted reformist itching to step out of his father’s shadow and rescue a country teetering on the edge of pariah status. They note his academic credentials, including his 2001 master’s thesis exploring the idea of land reforms in Cambodia. They also point to his seeming reluctance to be dragged into his father’s dirtier political frays. 

Pessimists counter that Hun Manet has never veered from his father’s “stability” narrative, which is a thinly veiled threat that any attempt to unseat the Hun family would be met with violence. Moreover, any attempt at meaningful reform would run up against the vested interests of the nation’s tycoons and military leaders. Their support has been vital in sustaining Hun Sen’s 38-year reign and would presumably be equally essential to his son. 

The truth, however, is that nobody but Hun Manet really knows for sure what he has planned.

Another unknown is how much latitude Hun Sen will allow his oldest child. While he has vowed to step down, he will hardly be stepping out of politics entirely.  

Laos has released a Thailand-based rights activist whom authorities arrested in April when he returned to Laos to visit family, sources with knowledge of his case told Radio Free Asia.

Savang Phaleuth had been working in Thailand for years and was a member of the Thailand-based Free Laos group. On April 20, he attempted to travel to his hometown in Laos’ Savannakhet province but he was arrested for his political campaign work, RFA previously reported.

He was released last month, a source who requested anonymity for safety reasons told RFA’s Lao Service.

“At the present time, Mr. Savang has been released,” the source said. “He returned to live with his family in Thailand.

A Lao official said that Savang was arrested because he has two nationalities and carries two passports, and was a member of an anti-Lao government organization in Thailand.

Other members of the Free Laos group told RFA that it was not likely that authorities arrested Savang for having dual nationality. It is more likely that there were political charges, they said.

Savang was not the first Thailand-based activist to be arrested when returning to Laos. In 2017, Somphone Pimmasone, Lodkham Thammavong, and Soukane Chaithad, were arrested when they entered Laos.

They were charged with criticizing the Lao government online while working abroad and for taking part in a protest outside the Lao embassy in Thailand. The three were handed prison terms described by rights groups as harsh at a secret trial in April of that year.

In another case, democracy activist Od Sayavong vanished under mysterious circumstances in Bangkok in 2019 after posting a video clip online criticizing the government. 

Listed as a “person of concern” by the UNHCR because of his advocacy for democracy and human rights, his whereabouts remain unknown. 

Translated by Sidney Khotpanya. Edited by Eugene Whong.

High levels of foreign owned debt and a lack of high-paying work means that Laos likely won’t be able to achieve two UN sustainable development goals – providing everyone with electricity and employment by the year 2030, government officials and analysts told Radio Free Asia.

Laos has signed on to the 2030 Agenda, a set of 17 sustainable development goals ratified by the UN in 2015 that include strategies for “no poverty,” “zero hunger,” and “affordable and clean energy.” 

Although Laos has constructed 94 hydroelectric dams on the Mekong River and its tributaries in a bold plan that would make it the “Battery of Southeast Asia,” nearly all of the dams were built with foreign investment and are geared toward selling the generated power to neighboring countries for profit.

It may therefore take 30 years for Laos to achieve access to electricity nationwide, analysts say. 

In the northern province of Luang Prabang, around 65% of people have access to electricity, but it isn’t readily available in the more rural areas, a provincial official told RFA’s Lao Service.

“To extend the power line to people’s houses, we need funding, but the government is short on budget,” he said. “Villagers who live in remote areas use lamps and firewood because they are not hooked up to the power line. We have to have money to do that.”

The southern province of Sekong is one of the better connected at 87%, an official there told RFA. 

“The rest don’t have [electricity] because their villages are built on the hillside,” he said. “They are scattered all over the place, not living together in one big village. That’s the reason they don’t have power.”

A district-level official in nearby Oudomxay province told RFA that only 70 of 100 families in the district had electricity because the other 30 were cattle raisers and lived far away from the village.

A villager in the northwestern province of Xayabury, however, said that people go without electricity, not because the government can’t afford it, but because the people are expected to pay for it.

“Here in Xayabury province, there are two villages with a total of 10 families, or 56 people, who don’t have electricity because they don’t have money to connect the power line to their villages.”

Jobs for all?

Although Laos is committed to also eliminating unemployment by the year 2030, government officials said that goal is unrealistic. A lack of high-paying jobs in Laos means that a large percentage of the working population seeks work in neighboring Thailand and other countries.

Currently, Laos says that out of its population of 7.7 million, only 61,000 are officially listed as unemployed because statistics do not count farmers and others who work outside the system. 

An official in the southern province of Champasak said the economy is not expected to improve by 2030.

“There are many unemployed people in Champassack, because they don’t want to work with low pay,” he said. “Without wage increases and an improved economy, most of the Lao workers [will continue to] work overseas.”

An official in the northern province of Bokeo said that more than half of all city dwellers have jobs, but this is not the case in more rural areas.

“There are many thousands of unemployed on the list, but there are so many more unlisted who are not employed because authorities are unable to collect data in rural areas,” he said.

An official in nearby Xaysomboun province said that because so many farmers only work during the rainy season, they are counted as unemployed in the dry seasons.

“Our province doesn’t have a factory to hire workers, so most people work on the farms seasonally,” he said. “It’s also because of high inflation and the devaluation of the kip that some people went to work overseas.”

An official in Savannakhet province however explained that the unemployed were all in the cities because farmers work year round.

“There are a lot of unemployed people in the cities, after they graduate from school there is no work to do,” he said. ”In rural areas not too many people are un-employed because they work with their families farming, and some work on rubber plantations.”

Translated by Sidney Khotpanya. Edited by Eugene Whong. 

Malaysia and the Philippines on Wednesday discussed giving fellow ASEAN states more latitude in pursuing individual and informal approaches for dealing with the post-coup crisis in Myanmar.

The question of how to handle the repressive and recalcitrant Burmese junta has divided the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) after member-state Thailand engaged with Myanmar’s military at least four times lately.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim told reporters that he and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. discussed ASEAN and Myanmar at a bilateral meeting in Kuala Lumpur. 

“We did touch on Myanmar to strengthen the five-point consensus of ASEAN, but also give some flexibility, room and space for neighboring countries to engage on an informal basis,” Anwar said during a joint press conference with Marcos afterwards.

Anwar added that if this were to take place it must be done “without sacrificing the issues of human rights and the treatment of minorities, particularly Rohingya and other Burmese minorities in Myanmar.”

The Philippine president, who arrived in Kuala Lumpur on Tuesday afternoon for a two-day visit, did not mention Myanmar but, according to the Associated Press news agency, he said that in general ASEAN countries should be able to use bilateral means to solve problems.

“I think that this will be an important aspect to all the issues that ASEAN is presently facing and to all the issues that the member states are presently worrying about,” AP quoted him as saying.

ASEAN’s five-point consensus, a roadmap to restoring peace in Myanmar, has been ignored by the junta, which agreed to the plan two months after it toppled an elected government in February 2021. 

All along, the junta has cracked down on mass protests, killed nearly 4,000 people and arrested thousands more, according to human rights groups.

Aside from barring junta representatives from its meetings, ASEAN has been widely criticized for failing to make much headway in moving Myanmar towards peace. Malaysia’s former foreign minister, too, panned the consensus last year, saying it needed to be thrown out and that a new, time-bound plan with enforcement mechanisms should be formulated.

The Thai government, meanwhile, broke ranks with ASEAN and has engaged in talks with Myanmar’s military.

Earlier this month, in a shock announcement, Thailand’s foreign minister said he met secretly in prison with Burmese pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi who was jailed after the Feb. 1, 2021, military coup. The meeting, Thailand said, was approved by the Myanmar junta and the imprisoned leader.

Last month, Thailand also held another meeting with Myanmar’s junta-appointed foreign minister, representatives of India and China, as well as from ASEAN members Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and the Philippines. The Burmese and Thai militaries are said to be close, and the outgoing Thai PM is a former army chief.

Malaysia, Singapore and ASEAN 2023 chair Indonesia skipped that meeting.

The Malaysian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that its minister’s prior commitments were the reason he couldn’t attend. But it added that ASEAN’s five-point consensus remained the gold standard and bloc unity along with support for the ASEAN chair must be demonstrated.

Legitimacy for junta?

Anwar’s comments Wednesday about exploring individual member-states approaches to the Myanmar crisis, therefore, mark a change in Malaysia’s position.

His comments also followed a joint statement from ASEAN foreign ministers this month that reflected the divide within the bloc by noting that “a number of ASEAN member states” viewed the Thai meeting in June “as a positive development.”

Anwar’s rethink probably resulted from a realization that the situation seems to have become deadlocked, said Lee Pei May, a political expert at the International Islamic University Malaysia. 

“When the agreed-upon solution doesn’t yield the expected results, it’s essential to be open to exploring alternative approaches to find a resolution that benefits everyone involved,” she told BenarNews.

“This is one of the reasons why I believe Anwar has suggested that informal engagement with the Myanmar regime could be the way forward.”

An informal approach gives neighboring countries and the junta more flexibility to discuss and find common ground, May said.

“Thus, it is up to the wisdom of each country’s leader how they want to engage with Myanmar’s junta,” she added.

But another analyst, Chong Ja Ian, of the National University of Singapore, warned of the perils of informal approaches.

“[T]he issue is how much legitimacy do ASEAN or its members wish to extend to the junta. Will the junta use any contact or assistance to boost their legitimacy and the legitimacy of their actions, including on human rights abuses?” he told BenarNews.

“If there is engagement, what tangible outcomes do such engagement bring for the people of Myanmar or ASEAN? Or are they really photo opportunities for politicians?”

BenarNews is an RFA-affiliated online news organization.

Authorities in the southwestern city of Chengdu step up security ahead of a visit by ruling Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping amid calls for ‘flash mob’ protests at the University Games.

Xi will attend the International University Sports Federation University Games’ opening ceremony on Friday, and the security measures come after an online call for further protests linked to the “white paper” movement of November 2022 to target the event by calling for his resignation.

The move follows an online call for further protests linked to the “white paper” movement of November 2022 to target the event by calling for Xi’s resignation.

In a July 9 GitHub post titled “Calling for White Paper Revolutionary Action at the Chengdu University Games,” the author calls for a “flash mob” event during the Games, but warns people not to discuss the time and place for any actions online.

“Any anti-Xi Jinping groups are welcome to take part,” the post said. “We welcome you even if you’re a party member.”

It called for rapid-fire protests to continue as long as Xi remains in power, but warned of agents provocateurs who could be infiltrating any plans to protest.

“Don’t contact people you know online to do this … and don’t disclose any personal information.”

Flash mobs?

It also predicted “large numbers of plainclothes cops” at the venue, citing “comrades in the system.”

“Many protesters are also preparing,” the post said. “If you can’t make the flash mob event in Chengdu, please help spread the word online,” the post said.

“Instead of being slaves to the dictator Xi Jinping, we can each of us take one small action to bring the dictator down,” it said.

A Chengdu resident who gave only the surname Fang told Radio Free Asia in an interview on Tuesday that security in the city has already been visibly stepped up.

“The security measures on the streets around the University Games venues and other areas have already started,” Fang said. “They’re starting in advance.”

A resident of Chengdu’s Wuhou district who gave only the surname Yang said Xi is reportedly spending two days in the city.

“They told us here that you can’t drive a Tesla anywhere inside the restricted area,” Yang said. In June 2022, authorities in the northern seaside resort of Beidaihe also banned Teslas during a top secret summer conference by ruling Chinese Communist Party leaders in the town.

A Chengdu resident who gave only the surname Wang said the authorities want to make sure nobody displays any anti-government slogans during the event.

“Deep down, they’re still afraid,” she said.

No knives and scissors

In October, police detained a lone protester who hung two protest banners – one of which called for the removal of Chinese leader Xi Jinping on a Beijing overpass on the eve of the ruling party’s 20th National Congress.

Meanwhile, a courier company posted in a WeChat group saying it has been forbidden to ship “flammable, suspicious and chemical items” are now barred from delivery services.

The sale of kitchen knives and scissors will also be banned, according to a notice issued by Wang Mazi Kitchenware via social media.

A Chengdu Post Office employee who gave only the surname Tan said new rules have been put in place governing packages in recent days.

“It’s stricter, but not as strict as during the National People’s Congress,” Tan said. “Security checks are required … this is a big event … and there is a fear of explosives.”

Calls to branches of the Yuantong courier service in Shandong, Beijing and Sichuan rang unanswered during office hours on Tuesday.

Current affairs commentator Bi Xin said this is the first University Games to be held since the three years of intense restrictions under Xi Jinping’s zero-COVID policy.

“They have to make sure everything is perfect for him to attend,” Bi said. “Some students held a ‘white paper’ revolution a while back, and they don’t know if they’ll take this opportunity to do something again.”

“They must be very nervous,” he said.

The Games will run from July 28 to Aug. 8. and showcase competition in 18 sports including archery, artistic gymnastics, athletics, badminton, basketball, diving, fencing, judo, rhythmic gymnastics, rowing, shooting sports, swimming, table tennis, taekwondo, tennis, volleyball, water polo and wushu.

Translated by Luisetta Mudie.