Day: July 24, 2023

On July 23, 2022, Myanmar’s military junta executed three activists and a former lawmaker for continuing to fight for democracy after the military ousted the country’s democratically elected government in the Feb. 1, 2021 coup.

Among them was veteran democracy activist Kyaw Min Yu, a writer and translator better known as Ko Jimmy,  who was a prominent leader of the pro-democracy 88 Generation Students Group who fought military rule three decades ago.

He was arrested in October 2021 after spending eight months in hiding and was convicted in a closed-door trial by a military tribunal in January under the Counter-Terrorism Law.

Ko Jimmy was accused of contacting the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, National Unity Government (NUG), and People’s Defense Forces (PDF) an opposition coalition and militia network formed by politicians ousted in the coup.

The junta also said he advised local militia groups in Yangon and ordered PDF groups to attack police, military targets, and government offices, and asking the NUG to buy a 3D printer to produce weapons for local militias.

The executions of Ko Jimmy, Phyo Zeya Thaw, Hla Myo Aung and Aung Thura Zaw were decried by UN Special Rapporteur on the Situation of Human Rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, as “depraved acts,” while U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the executions “reprehensible acts of violence.” 

One year after the execution, Radio Free Asia’s Burmese Service interviewed Ko Jimmy’s widow Nilar Thein. She discussed the sacrifices her husband made for the country.

The interview has been edited for length and clarity.

RFA: It’s been a year since Jimmy and the other three political activists were executed by the junta. How has the past year without him affected you?

Nilar Thein: Since the time he was executed, we have suffered, grieved and are in great pain. But I have turned those feelings into strength to continue his fight. I believe that I have one new responsibility: to live his dream and work even harder.

RFA: What have you been doing these days?

Nilar Thein: I am shouldering as much responsibility for the revolution as I can. I am working on tasks that are suitable for my age and situation with a determination that whatever I do, regardless of where I am, must strengthen the revolution. 

RFA: Reports from Myanmar say that the junta forces continue acts of violence and violate human rights in prisons and all over the country. What’s your opinion on that?

Nilar Thein: In my opinion, I can say one thing that this is the junta’s last moment. Their brutality and cowardice have become worse. The revolutionary forces are in control of more areas of the country these days, so in response the junta’s actions have become even more brutal and cowardly. We continue to witness their serious violations of human rights.

RFA: What is your view towards young people opposed to the junta?

Nilar Thein: A generation was born during the spring revolution. This generation sacrificed their hopes, dreams, future and even their lives and took part in the revolution in any way they can to try to bring an end to this military dictatorship. Their involvement in the revolution, their ideas, opinions and their performance were recognized, applauded and idolized globally. 

RFA: I’d like to ask a little about Jimmy. Did he not know how much danger he could be in by continuing to stay in Yangon? And if he did, why did he remain in Yangon?

Nilar Thein: Since Jimmy left home on the morning of the military coup until he was arrested, he only stayed in Yangon. After seeing younger activists and children being slaughtered by the junta, he said that when younger people who were as young as his own children were sacrificing their lives, old men like him who can live or die at their age have to participate. He was so eager to work together, networking with urban guerrilla groups, young people from student unions and other organizations. He was completely devoted to the revolution. That’s not because he did not know the danger he could be in. I knew what trouble he would be in. But he worked his best for the revolution while he still could. 

RFA: What kind of impact do you think the sacrifice that Jimmy and other activists made has had on the fight for democracy?

Nilar Thein: When we heard that Jimmy, Phyo Zayar Thaw, Hla Myo Aung and Aung Thura Zaw were executed by the junta, it was not just a threat to their families alone. It was not just a threat to our country alone. But it was a threat to the whole world. As a result, all our people have become more strenuous in their revolutionary acts with a resolution that they will not give in to the junta’s execution of their leaders. They worked harder and took up responsibilities where they could. Those who could not participate on the front lines provided even a handful of rice or a cup of water, whatever they could support the revolution. Those who can provide supplies for the revolution have worked harder for the cause. Although the junta has tried to threaten the people with these executions, we have become more fearless and more rebellious against the military. 

RFA: We’ve heard news that the military junta that once gave death sentences now does not even bother to prosecute political prisoners in court and kills them after taking them out in a fake prison transfer. What is your view toward such actions of the military junta?

Nilar Thein: We’ve heard lately that the junta has killed prisoners … after taking them out in a fake prison transfer. So now, I have learned that the word prison transfer could mean an execution. Since local and international communities seriously condemned the junta’s execution of political prisoners, I think they now try to avoid official execution that will cause criticism. So they lawlessly kill our comrades on the purported excuse that they tried to escape. We heard these days that the junta killed our comrades from Insein, Tharyarwaddy and Dike-U prisons during transfers. The fact that the junta doesn’t even bother to officially execute prisoners like before and lawlessly murders them instead, indicates how the military junta is oppressing the people without any regard to law and regulations in our country. I would like to urge the international community to condemn these atrocious acts by the military junta and stand with the people. 

RFA: Would you tell us about your daughter? What is she doing these days and how has she understood what kind of person her father was?

Nilar Thein: My daughter takes part in volunteering activities and also teaches children. She loves her father very much and her father loved her so dearly too. She said that her father helped other people more than himself as a politician, a selfless and responsible person who did not oppress others with his power of leadership and someone who defies unjustness. As a father, even though he might not wholly accept the views of young people, he showed respect. He hung out with them. He supported his daughter’s interests and activities. He did not put pressure on our daughter regarding her studies. Jimmy made time for his daughter even when he was very busy. What he used to tell her often was that any result she got was good enough because she tried her best regarding her exams and competitions. Our daughter said that her dad was a politician who loved the arts. 

RFA: How would you evaluate the status of the fight for democracy these days?

Nilar Thein: During the past two years, there were many sectors that we had to try to rebuild after being totally destroyed. I’ve seen that those who have taken responsibility for this are working so hard, facing a lot of difficulty to rebuild and readjust and try to be able to reach the international community. They have achieved some success and strength but there are still many problems and weaknesses on this side too. We accept the existence of these problems. We are going to cooperate with a positive mindset that we will do what we can for the revolution. 

Translated by Khin Maung Nyane. Edited by Eugene Whong. 

More than a dozen civilians were killed by Myanmar junta forces, with some brutally tortured before being executed, during a six-hour raid on a village in northwestern Sagaing region on July 21, residents said on Monday.

In all, 14 people, including four teenagers and six members of an anti-junta People’s Defense Force, lost their lives during the assault in Yinmarbin township, leaving residents who witnessed the murders in deep distress, the sources said.

The killings occurred when a 100-strong army column raided Sone Chaung village at 2 a.m. on July 21. Among the minors killed were Lwin Moe Tun, Sai Htoo Hseng, Nay Min Tun and Pho Chit, residents said.

Myanmar soldiers also killed four civilians in their 30s — Naing Min, Myo Myint Swe, Pho Aung and Kyaw Zin Tun. The six PDF members executed were Myo Myint Oo, Kyaw Soe, Yan Naing Soe, Htay Zaw, Aung Win Swe and Zaw Win.

The victims were tortured before being killed, said a village resident who found the bodies and who spoke to Radio Free Asia on condition of anonymity, citing security concerns.

The 10 adults were tied in pairs and shot dead in the southern part of the village, he said. 

“It was a horrible scene,” the local said. “Faces were disfigured, and their [chests] were covered in blood.”

The villager went on to say that soldiers had torn off the skin on one of the PDF member’s legs, hit him in the chest with rifle butts, and appeared to have shot him in the temple at point-blank range.  

Myanmar has been wracked by violence since the military overthrew the elected civilian-led government in a February 2021 coup.  

Sagaing region has been an anti-junta stronghold and cradle of resistance for local PDFs — civilians who have taken up arms to fight the military’s brutal rule. Junta forces have swept through villages across the region to find and punish suspected resistance fighters and their civilian supporters.

Sone Chaung has four communities with more than 2,000 houses and over 7,000 residents who mostly farm to make a living.  

‘We are inconsolable’

The military column entered Sone Chaung village from the south and left around 8 a.m., residents said.

Villager Phyu Nu said she believed soldiers were firing into the air when she heard gunshots from the south end around 6:30 a.m.

“Later, we found dead bodies,” she told RFA. “They didn’t fire into the air, but they killed the youths. It’s too cruel. And it’s even more painful because the people who were not involved in the revolution were also killed. The victims were not simply shot dead. We are inconsolable since they were horribly disfigured.”

The villagers said they buried the bodies of eight civilians, who were Sone Chaung residents, near Kyauk Hmaw village to the north on the same day.

Following the raid, junta-controlled state media reported that Myanmar forces killed seven, not six, PDF members and seized weapons during the village raid. 

Villager Tin Oo told RFA that the junta forces made a false accusation about the presence of a PDF camp in Sone Chaung.

“They did this because it is likely that someone such as an informant told them about the village,” he said. “People are frustrated because [the military] did such a thing though there is no PDF.”

The State Administration Council, as the junta regime is known, has not issued a statement on the raid.

RFA could not reach junta spokesperson Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun for comment.

A member of the Chindwin PDF who survived the raid said junta forces intercepted PDF communication signals and were waiting to shoot at them. 

“After being shot and arrested, four of our members were left behind, and the other four escaped with chest wounds,” he said. 

The PDF members did not have time to fight back as they tried to move residents to a safe place amid continuous fire by junta troops.

More than 30 residents who could not escape and were detained by the soldiers were later released when the military column left, villagers said. 

Some Sone Chaung residents who successfully fled have not yet returned because of the killings, they said.

More than 3,800 civilians have been killed across Myanmar since the military coup, according to the Association for the Assistance of Political Prisoners, a Thailand-based rights group. 

Translated by Htin Aung Kyaw for RFA Burmese. Edited by Roseanne Gerin and Matt Reed.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. talked at length about protecting the Philippines’ sovereignty amid heightened territorial tensions with China in a speech to Congress on Monday about his first year in office. 

Marcos said the Philippines would always follow international law – a veiled reference to Beijing, which has increased its encroachment into Manila’s South China Sea waters and continued to harass Philippine vessels since he was elected as the country’s leader in May 2022.

“Our journey to progress requires not only unity and social cohesion among our people. It is also imperative that our nation remains intact and inviolable, our sovereignty preserved,” Marcos said during his second State of the Nation Address, which lasted a little more than an hour.

Marcos noted that the Philippines would stick with the policy of being “a friend to all and enemy to none,” a strategy that, he said, has proven effective.

“We will protect our sovereign rights and preserve our territorial integrity, in defense of rules-based international order,” he said.

“With our national interest paramount, we will always pursue constant dialogue and diplomatic approaches to the resolution of any issue that may arise.”

Marcos, the namesake son of a late Filipino dictator, has stepped back from his immediate predecessor Rodrigo Duterte’s strategy and repaired ties with the United States. Under Marcos’ watch, the American military has been allowed to gain access to more Philippine military bases, as tensions between the U.S. and China build over Taiwan.

In May, Marcos became the first Philippine president in nearly a decade to conduct an official visit to the United States. 

Marcos simultaneously has been careful not to alienate China, a key partner in Philippine economic growth, although his government has filed nearly a hundred diplomatic protests against Beijing over its alleged harassment in the contested sea region.

Marcos’ speech highlighted that his administration prioritizes protecting the country’s sovereignty, Don MacLean Gill, a Manila-based geopolitical analyst, told BenarNews.

“More importantly, and perhaps, as a veiled response to Chinese belligerence and expansive claims, Marcos Jr. reiterated Manila’s adherence in securing and preserving the rules-based order,” Gill said.

The address “highlighted and re-emphasized Marcos Jr’s commitment in prioritizing the Philippines’ territorial integrity, sovereignty, and sovereign rights amid the exacerbating geopolitical conditions of the region,” Gill said.

Meanwhile, about 5,000 protesters marched to the House of Representatives complex in Quezon City, Metro Manila, where Marcos delivered his State of the Nation Address. They were peacefully protesting some of his economic and foreign policies.

Renato Reyes, head of the nationalist group Bayan, said the Marcos administration was not doing anything to address the fact that the Philippines was in the midst of superpower rivalry in the region.

“In his vision of a Bagong Pilipinas [new Philippines], Marcos avoided the problem of U.S. military bases in the Philippines and China’s incursions in our exclusive economic zone and how we are caught between this inter-imperialist rivalry,” Reyes said in a statement.

ICC and drug war

Marcos also spoke about reforms to the police force, but said his government would not drop his predecessor’s war on drugs, adding “it has taken on a new face.”

Marcos faces questions over justice related to Duterte’s drug war that left about 8,000 suspected drug addicts and dealers dead, activists have said.

Last week, the International Criminal Court turned down a Philippine appeal to reject an investigation into the drug war. Reacting to that ruling, Marcos on Friday said that Manila would no longer deal with the ICC nor cooperate with it “in any way, shape, or form.”

In his speech to Congress, he did not directly talk about the ICC’s decision.

“We will relentlessly continue our fight against drug syndicates, shutting down their illegal activities and dismantling their network of operations,” Marcos said.

He said “unscrupulous law enforcers” involved in drug trafficking had been identified.

“I will be accepting their resignations,” he said, but did not add that he would order their arrest.

Cristina Palabay, secretary general of Karapatan, a human rights group which represents some of the drug-war victims in the ICC case, took Marcos to task for not talking about the court’s decision in his speech on Monday.

“The supposed new face of his anti-narcotics campaign is merely a rehash of tired, old PR lines that mean literally nothing in the context of the continuing extra-judicial killings in his drug war,” Palabay told BenarNews.

Economy faces global troubles

Addressing the economy, Marcos noted that global market conditions, such as the conflict in Ukraine and the extended effects of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to affect growth. But the economy had still performed well, he said.

The economy grew by a respectable 7.6% in 2022, and 6.4% in the first quarter of 2023. Inflation had eased too as the government continued to stabilize prices of basic commodities, Marcos said.

“On matters of the economy, there are many things over which we have no control,” he said.

“But over those where we do have control, we are doing everything we can,” he said, as he asked Congress to keep supporting the government’s fiscal reform programs, including the passage of several key tax laws.

But those who protested outside the House of Representatives and Reyes, of the group Bayan, said they were dissatisfied with the Marcos administration’s lack of attention to employment and labor.

“In his Bagong Pilipinas, there is no mention of national industrialization and sustainable job creation. There is no mention of a substantial wage increase for workers and employees. … There were promises of local agriculture development, but these are undermined by the policy of importation of agricultural products,” Reyes said. 

“Bagong Pilipinas … harps on grand promises but falls short of actual benefits for the people. In that respect, it is not so new after all.”

Camille Elemia, Jojo Riñoza and Basilio Sepe in Manila contributed to this report by BenarNews, an RFA-affiliated online news organization.

France, the United Kingdom and Australia on Monday criticized Cambodia’s one-sided parliamentary election, while China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman congratulated Cambodia for the “smoothly held” vote.

Preliminary results from Sunday’s election show the Prime Minister Hun Sen’s ruling Cambodian People’s Party winning 120 of 125 seats in the National Assembly. 

But the election has been criticized as neither free nor fair because of the exclusion of the main opposition Candlelight Party, as well as for efforts to neutralize the political opposition through threats, arrests and other means. 

The estimated 84 percent turnout was “a clear demonstration of the vibrancy of the Kingdom’s democracy” and “a rejection of the calls for electoral boycotts and smear campaigns orchestrated by extremist opposition factions,” Cambodia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.

The voting process was witnessed by 422 international observers, representing 65 nationalities from 61 institutions, according to the ministry’s statement, which did not specify the institutions. 

The United States, the European Union, France and Japan said in March that they had no plans to send electoral observers or to provide assistance to Cambodia’s election committee, citing arrests of opposition activists and other actions intended to silence and intimidate opposition figures. 

A statement from the Australian Embassy on Monday condemned the pressure brought to bear on media outlets and civil society groups in recent months, as well as the National Election Committee’s decision in May to disqualify the Candlelight Party.

“Australia has been a partner for decades supporting Cambodia’s aspiration for peace, development, democracy and human rights,” the embassy statement said. “We express our concerns as a longstanding friend and renew our desire to work with Cambodia towards these aspirations.”

France’s statement cited the 1991 Paris Peace Agreement, which ended decades of war in Cambodia and set the stage for UN-sponsored elections in 1993 and the writing of a new Constitution.

“We call for the release of the detained opposition members, and urge the Cambodian authorities to respect the fundamental rights necessary for the restoration of democracy,” a Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement said.

Additionally, the ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights called on the international community to not recognize or legitimize Sunday’s “farcical elections.” Canada and the European Union also released statements on Monday that were critical of the election.

Official election results are expected to be announced between Aug. 9 and Sept. 4.

‘Strong momentum’ with China

At the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s regular news conference on Monday, spokeswoman Mao Ning wished Hun Sen and the CPP success in forming a new government. 

“In recent years, under the strategic guidance of Chinese and Cambodian leaders, China-Cambodia relations have enjoyed strong momentum,” she said. “Our two countries contribute to regional cooperation and international equity and justice.”

Hun Sen, who has ruled Cambodia since 1985, told a Chinese television station last week that his eldest son, Hun Manet, could succeed him as prime minister within weeks. 

Hun Manet was listed as the CPP’s top candidate from Phnom Penh. In February, he traveled with his father to Beijing to attend meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang.

U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller declined to comment on Monday on the possibility of Hun Manet taking control of the government soon.

On Sunday, he said in a statement that the United States was troubled that the elections were “neither free nor fair.” 

The statement also said that the United States would pause some foreign assistance programs and has taken steps “to impose visa restrictions on individuals who undermined democracy” in Cambodia ahead of the elections. 

“We do not make those designations public,” Miller said at the State Department’s regular briefing on Monday. “We make public that we have designated officials, but we do not make the names public as a matter of policy.”

He added that $18 million in foreign aid programs will be put on hold this year, and restrictions will extend into future fiscal years. He did not detail the specific programs that were no longer being funded. 

Translated by Sok Ry Sum. Edited by Matt Reed.

Police in Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh City have arrested activist Phan Tat Thanh, accusing him for criticizing the government’s response to “Chinese aggression” in the South China Sea, his father told Radio Free Asia.

Thanh, 37, also known as “Black Aaron,” often posted online about the contentious area in the sea where Hanoi, Beijing and others have competing territorial claims.

Netizens told Thanh’s father, who requested anonymity for security reasons, that Thanh had gone missing on July 5.

The police issued a prosecution document on July 13, and on July 15 they searched his home and copied data from his computer.

In 2010, Thanh staged a protest in front of China’s Embassy in Bangkok because anti-China demonstrations in Vietnam by that time were being suppressed. 

In addition to anti-China posts, Thanh had written posts and comments about human rights violations, environmental pollution, systematic corruption, and issues of major concern in Vietnam.

Meanwhile, police in nearby Lam Dong province confirmed that they have arrested macrobiotics teacher Duong Tuan Ngoc for posts he made on social media about education, health, and social issues that criticized the government.

RFA reported last week that police in Lam Dong province summoned Ngoc, 38, on July 10, together with his wife Bui Thanh Diem, and he was detained the next day on charges of violating Article 117 of Vietnam’s penal code, a vaguely written set of rules that rights groups say is Hanoi’s favorite tool to silence dissenting bloggers and journalists.

The police told state media Monday that they have decided to prosecute Ngoc.

On July 16, Ngoc’s wife, Bui Thanh Diem told RFA’s Vietnamese Service that although they were both summoned, she was let go.

Later she received a document saying Ngoc was being held for “posting, sharing posts and video clips on Facebook and YouTube personal accounts, lashing out at the process to build socialism, distorting history, and several other acts of disrespect to the Communist Party and the government.

But she said the notice was not specific and did not say which of Ngoc’s videos or social media posts were deemed to be problematic.

Ngoc’s most recent Facebook post, on July 10, praised a lifestyle close to nature in Vietnam’s countryside. His personal page has more than 45,000 followers and has an introductory description declaring, “I have rights as a citizen. You have rights as citizens. Citizens are the rightful owners of the country.”

His YouTube account “Freelance Education” was established in July 2019, and he has around 34,000 followers and hundreds of videos about health, medicine, and life in the countryside.

Translated by An Nguyen. Edited by Eugene Whong.

In his memorable evocation of the role of a constitutional monarch, the 19th-century historian Thomas Macaulay intoned that a sovereign reigns but does not rule. After Hun Sen resigns as Cambodia’s prime minister and hands over the position to his eldest son, the self-styled “peasant king” will achieve the opposite: he will rule but not reign.

Hun Sen has insinuated that he will hand over the premiership to Hun Manet, a former military chief and four-star general, sometime next month. The long-anticipated power transfer is part of a vast generational succession in the ruling party. 

According to leaked official lists seen by this writer and now circulating among political observers, the reshuffle will see almost the entire cabinet replaced by younger officials, many of whom are the children or relatives of other aging party grandees. Interior Minister Sar Kheng and Defence Minister Tea Banh are slated to hand over their offices to their sons, too, according to the lists, on which the government has yet to comment.

Yet, Hun Sen won’t quit politics. He has confirmed he will stay on as president of the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), which clinched a landslide victory at Sunday’s general election, an expected outcome after it had disqualified its only viable opponent from competing. 

From that position, Hun Sen will still dictate party policy and appointees. It now has more authority to hire and fire after the National Assembly’s authority to censure ministers was weakened by constitutional changes last year. He will likely keep his other titles. 

He was, for instance, made honorary president of a recently-created forum of the country’s business tycoons. One imagines he will still accompany Manet on visits to Beijing, Cambodia’s main benefactor.

It’s possible that Hun Sen will also create a new cabinet post for himself (perhaps “Mentor Minister”) or seek to take the presidency of the National Assembly or Senate, the latter of which will allow him to be acting head of state when the King is out of the country, which he frequently is. Doing so would give him additional powers. It would also prolong his diplomatic immunity. Last year, the French government invoked that immunity to prevent a French court from summoning him to a case involving a 1997 grenade attack on opposition figure Sam Rainsy, which Hun Sen’s bodyguard unit is accused of conducting. 

All in the clan

Hun Sen has carved out a “personalist” rule for his family, now the most important political clan. Hun Many, his youngest son, is expected to become the next Minister of Civil Service, in charge of the sprawling bureaucracy. Hun Manith, another son, will remain as military intelligence chief and was recently made a deputy army commander. Mao Sophan, a close Hun Sen loyalist and head of Brigade 70, has taken over as army chief from Manet. Vongsey Vissoth, one of Hun Sen’s closest assistants, is tipped to become the next head of the Council of Ministers, so in charge of cabinet affairs. Neth Savoeun, the national police chief, who is married to Hun Sen’s niece, is expected to become a deputy prime minister. Hun Sen’s daughters control a vast media and business empire. 

In many ways, Hun Sen will depart the premiership after 38 years as the “strongman” he purports to be. His family’s power is secure. He has acolytes in important government and military posts. His narrative that only the CPP (read: his family) can ensure peace and stability is often employed for cynical reasons but there is no doubt that it appeals to many Cambodian voters, especially those old enough to remember the genocide Khmer Rouge era. Something akin to “Hun Sen Thought” could become official dogma. His party maintains dominance of the National Assembly, winning all but five seats at last weekend’s election, according to unofficial results. 

The opposition movement that traces a lineage back to the 1990s looks all but a spent force. The economy is in okay-ish health, although structural debts in the property market might bite soon. Cambodia is a trusted, “ironclad” friend of Beijing’s, while Western democracies seem to have lost interest in trying to roll back the tide of authoritarianism. 

Democratic states will likely see an inchoate Manet administration as one they can work with, although their belief that he will be more democratic and tolerant is a result of them predicting his actions by his reputation as a Western-educated, somewhat cosmopolitan figure.     

Yet, power can be tenuous. And rarely do dynastic successions happen as smoothly as imagined in dictatorships. Hun Sen may prove history wrong. With him still in charge behind the scenes, no one will move against his son. But one might question why he felt the need for his eldest son to succeed him. Maybe it speaks to his obsession with framing himself as the “peasant king” Sdach Kan, a 16th-century usurper. Maybe it is because he sees a dearth of other competent hands to take over the premiership. 

More probable, Hun Sen wants to keep Cambodian politics a family business because that’s the only way to protect his family. Cambodian politics is a complex web of patronage networks, resembling a past-century court where the Hun family sits at the top and the other baron families (the Tea’s, the Sar’s, the Sok’s) accept the hierarchy but only if they get their cut of the spoils. 

Family fiefdoms

The important families have their own ministerial and provincial fiefdoms, in which they can give lucrative state contracts and concessions to their favorites and enrich themselves. All that requires careful handling. If the equilibrium is disrupted, even slightly, if one family feels its interests are threatened, that destabilizes the entire system. 

On the one hand, the settlement Hun Sen has fleshed out, in which children of party grandees will now inherit their parents’ positions and patronage networks, ensures continuity. On the other hand, it’s a sign of the inherent weakness of the system.

A Hun had to inherit the prime ministership to ensure the family’s interests remained intact. A party-wide inheritance scheme had to be conducted to ensure stability, but many of the successors aren’t experienced. Not only has Manet never held an elected office nor held a governmental office, raising questions about his experience, but he will also become prime minister without the express mandate of voters. Tea Seiha has little experience in defense. 

This sets up a stunted succession process. The party’s current aging grandees will resign but they’ll still rule. If done properly, the princelings will be given more and more independence over time. If performed badly, however, it will be a succession in all but name, with the new generation of leaders never able to stand on their own two feet, increasing the risks of what happens when their fathers are no longer around. 

As such, the transfer of the prime ministership (likely next month) will only signify the midway point of the entire succession process. That will only be completed when Hun Sen no longer has any way back to being prime minister. But for as long as he remains the powerbroker, Manet will never be his own man. His inchoate administration will be dictated to by Hun Sen, and his own legitimacy will always be tied to his father’s. He’ll remain “the son.”

 If this goes on for too long and Manet isn’t given the leeway to make a crack at forming his own reputation and associations, the danger grows over what happens when Hun Sen, who turns 71 next month, actually departs the political scene.

David Hutt is a research fellow at the Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS) and the Southeast Asia Columnist at the Diplomat. As a journalist, he has covered Southeast Asian politics since 2014. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect the position of RFA.