China’s apparent unhappiness with Myanmar’s military junta has created an opportunity for an international consensus on how to address the country’s post-coup political crisis, a Brussels-based think tank said in a report on Wednesday.
The report from the International Crisis Group, or ICG, pointed to China’s tacit support for the “Operation 1027” offensive against military strongholds in northern Myanmar that began last October and “dealt the junta a resounding defeat in a strategic enclave on the Chinese border.”
The ICG also noted Beijing’s annoyance with the junta’s failure to act against the numerous scam centers along the border that have targeted Chinese nationals in recent years.
“Beijing’s displeasure has not, however, translated into disengagement,” the group said in “Scam Centres and Ceasefires: China-Myanmar Ties Since the Coup.”
“There is room for different actors to work together on improving outcomes in Myanmar,” it said. “For its part, China should resist overly transactional or short-term approaches in favor of promoting long-term stability.”
Beijing can do this because it is “the preeminent diplomatic force” in Myanmar, having more influence with “many of the country’s key protagonists than any other foreign power,” the report said.
Possible ‘coordinated response’
Chinese President Xi Jinping had built warm relations with the government of Aung San Kyi Suu and was preparing several major infrastructure projects across Myanmar, including a deep sea port. He signed several memorandums of understanding during a January 2020 visit to the country.
But the Feb. 1, 2021, military coup d’etat “was an unwelcome complication” for relations between the two countries, bringing insecurity and uncertainty to Myanmar and “making big investments unviable,” the report said.
It has also left Myanmar in turmoil as fighting among military troops, anti-junta forces and ethnic armies has occurred in much of northern and western Myanmar, leaving villages destroyed and hundreds of thousands of people displaced.
Since the coup, Beijing has declined to normalize relations with the regime and hasn’t invited junta leader, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, to China “despite much lobbying.”
But Beijing has still sought to maintain relations with all of the main interested parties “to preserve its leverage and stop geopolitical rivals from capitalizing on turmoil,” the report noted.
That’s left room for China and other countries – including members of the U.N. Security Council – to agree on an approach to the crisis, the report said.
Dialogue with Council members could preserve “the possibility of a coordinated response” if the situation in Myanmar keeps deteriorating, the report said.
Shells land in Chinese territory
The civil war, now in its third year, has spilled over the border on occasion.
In early January, stray artillery fell in China’s Yunnan province during fighting in neighboring northern Shan state. The blast left five Chinese people injured, prompting a strong rebuke from Beijing.
On Wednesday, fighting on the border between junta troops and the Kachin Independence Army, or KIA, led to two artillery explosions in Chinese territory, a resident told RFA.
The KIA conducted attacks on military junta outposts in Kachin state on Tuesday night. Junta troops fired back early Wednesday but the shells landed on the Chinese side of the border, the resident said.
Chinese authorities responded by closing the nearby Mai Ja Yang border gate. RFA sent an email to the Chinese Embassy in Yangon to ask about the explosions, but they didn’t immediately respond.
Loss of trust
For its part, the IGC report said China should “move beyond establishing fragile truces on its border with Myanmar in favor of a broader approach” by pushing to end organized criminal activity along the border – “not merely those that have the greatest impact on Chinese citizens.”
“While such an approach would require a bigger investment on Beijing’s part, it also promises a greater return – a more durable peace – for China, Myanmar and the wider region,” the report said.
Junta spokesman Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun didn’t respond to RFA’s efforts to obtain comment, but a former army officer said the military has been unhappy with how Beijing has conducted its relations with the junta.
“We have also lost trust with them,” he told RFA. “We lost our confidence in China due to its self-interest.”
The Chinese government’s interest in resolving the crisis is driven by its investment projects in Myanmar, said Kyaw Zaw, the spokesman of the shadow National Unity Government, or NUG.
“I will say that China is dealing with all the relevant stakeholders of Myanmar issues in various ways,” he said. “They mainly focus on border security, protection of the interests of China and the Chinese people, and implementation of investment-related businesses that were signed with the previous government.”
Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster.