Thursday’s phone call with U.S. President Joe Biden will likely shore up political support for ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping ahead of the 20th CCP National Congress later this year, analysts told RFA on Friday.
Beijing-based political commentator Wu Qiang said there was little genuine consensus in the phone call between Xi and Biden, during which Xi warned Biden that “those who play with fire will get burnt.”
China has ramped up its military threats in recent days after it emerged that U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may be planning to visit Taiwan during a trip to the region in August.
Wu said the tone of the call showed that China and the United States increasingly lack any basis for cooperation and stability.
“For U.S. President Biden, their fifth call was just his attempt to build guard-rails for China-U.S. relations,” Wu said. “The problems, disputes, inflation and other geopolitical issues that Biden is facing now at home are very important.”
“The [deterioration in] the relationship between China and the U.S. is going to be difficult to alleviate through dialogue,” he said.
However, the call held considerable political significance for Xi in the context of domestic politics, Wu said.
“What this shows is that the stability of Sino-U.S. relations is very important in the run-up to the CCP’s 20th National Congress, and to [Xi’s bid for a third term in office],” he said.
“For the dialogue to take place against this background shows that the Chinese leadership is very concerned about Sino-U.S. relations … There is a sense of anxiety,” Wu said.
The presidential phone call didn’t appear in top searches as ranked by the internet platform Sina on Friday, but the Chinese defense ministry’s opposition to Pelosi’s plan was in seventh place.
Wu said the promise to force Taiwan to “unify” with China, using military force if necessary, is likely a key part of Xi’s bid for an unprecedented third term in office, for which he needs to build considerable internal support.
“This is, of course, a key political goal for the regime over the next 5 to 10 years, and the outbreak of war [in Ukraine] has made it less likely that China will be trying to [achieve this] in a favorable international environment,” he said.
Zong Tao, a former editor at International News, said the call was definitely an attempt to prevent any possible escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
But he didn’t think it would make much difference to actual, real-world outcomes.
“The contradictions — be they economic or trade-related, or security-related — can’t be easily resolved,” Zong told RFA. “They probably can’t get to any kind of valuable consensus.”
“Both leaders understand each others’ thinking, but that won’t make much difference to the way the situation will actually develop,” he said, adding that the likelihood of military conflict continues to grow.
Media coverage
Party mouthpiece The People’s Daily ran the approved Xinhua news agency report on the call, repeating Xi’s warning to Biden not to “play with fire” over possible plans by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit the democratic island of Taiwan.
The English edition of the nationalistic Global Times newspaper said Washington is trying to “contain” China with the passage of the CHIPS + Science Act — which Biden has said is aimed at strengthening national security by making the U.S. less dependent on foreign sources of semiconductors.
“A bigger storm is also brewing as U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is plotting to visit the Taiwan island. Washington is fully aware of the severity of this issue,” the paper said in an op-ed article on Friday, describing the phone call as “reassuring … to some extent,” but also “extremely critical for both China-U.S. bilateral ties and for the world.”
Taiwan, which has never been ruled by the CCP, nor formed part of the People’s Republic of China, has repeatedly said it won’t give up its democratic way of life or sovereignty despite the threat of Chinese invasion.
Beijing insists its diplomatic partners break off ties with Taipei and agree not to treat the island like a sovereign nation, hence the objection to Pelosi’s potential trip.
The Global Times said Biden’s reassurances that Washington will continue to support its “one China” policy, referring to China’s territorial claims over Taiwan, were “relatively positive.”
“But … these positive statements by President Biden have not been translated into the U.S.’ practical actions,” the paper said.
Taiwan foreign ministry spokeswoman Joanne Ou told reporters on Thursday that her government has yet to hear from Speaker Pelosi’s office regarding the details of any stopover in Taiwan during her planned trip to Japan, Indonesia and Singapore in August.
“Actually, our attitude is the same as before, which is that we have no comment,” Ou said. “Invitations to U.S. congressmen and women to visit [Taiwan] have always been a long-term focus of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and our representative office in the U.S., but we do not comment on individual cases.”
“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs hasn’t received any exact details regarding Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, and we have no further comment or explanation to offer,” she said.
Translated and edited by Luisetta Mudie.