Manila – The Philippine economy is expected to see robust growth in the fourth quarter of 2023, with forecasts indicating a possible expansion of 6.5 percent to 7 percent. This projection was shared by Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC) chief economist Michael Ricafort at a news forum on Saturday.
According to Philippines News Agency, the anticipated increase in spending during the holiday season and the recent Barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan Elections (BSKE) are key factors driving this optimistic outlook.
Ricafort highlighted that the BSKE in October contributed to economic growth through increased spending. He further noted that with the lifting of pandemic-related restrictions and the recovery of the tourism sector and other services, the forecasted growth rate is achievable. The Philippine economy had already shown a strong performance in the third quarter of 2023 with a 5.9 percent growth, surpassing the 4.3 percent in the second quarter and marking the highest growth among major emerging economies in Asia. To reach the government’s full-year GDP growth target of 6 percent to 7 percent for 2023, the economy must grow by over 7 percent in the fourth quarter. Ricafort remains optimistic, suggesting that a year-end growth rate of at least 5.5 to 5.8 percent is still within reach.
Additionally, Ricafort expressed confidence that the country’s unemployment rate could decline in the fourth quarter, traditionally a period of high demand for services. He anticipates more job and livelihood opportunities towards the holiday season, which could reduce the unemployment rate further. The Philippine Statistics Authority recently reported a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5 percent in September from 4.4 percent in August. However, Ricafort believes this rate could approach 4 percent, nearing the lowest unemployment rate of 4.2 percent recorded in November last year, the lowest since the pandemic began.