Day: April 2, 2022

Myanmar’s military killed as many as a dozen civilians and arrested nearly 30 others in restive Magway region in the month of March alone, while junta troops torched more than 700 houses in 18 of the region’s villages over the same period, residents said Friday.

Sources in Magway’s Gangaw township told RFA’s Myanmar Service that 10 deaths occurred from Feb. 28 to March 2 as troops raided the villages of Thindaw, Shwebo, Kone and Sann.

The military set more than 200 homes alight in Kone and Sann over the three-day period, they said, while a joint squad of some 100 troops and pro-military Pyu Saw Htee militia fighters burned another 200 on March 2 while attacking nearby Pauk township’s Leyar village.

A villager who spoke on condition of anonymity called the violence and destruction “unacceptable.”

“Our houses are antiques, built by hand according to our traditions. …  Our house was built with five tree trunks as its pillars and the current market price is no less than 7-8 million kyats (U.S. $4,000-4,500),” he said.

“They attack and destroy everything indiscriminately. How can they believe that destroying the lives and property of ordinary people is justified?”

The resident’s rice mill, which he valued at around 1.5 million kyats (U.S. $850), was also destroyed in the attack, he said.

He said that more than 1,300 villagers were forced to flee the raids and have been living in the mountains ever since, unable to tend their farms.

Other sources told RFA that junta forces raided Letpan Hla village on March 3 and burned down 50 of the village’s 120 houses. A member of the anti-junta People’s Defense Force (PDF) paramilitary group in Pauk Township said the raid came in response to an attack by his group on the military.

“We couldn’t stand it anymore because they were causing so much trouble for the people,” said the PDF member, who also declined to be named. “They captured five of our comrades alive and they set them on fire. Three houses were also burned down.”

More than 470 residents of Letpan Hla fled the village during the military attack and have yet to return, he said.

In another incident, sources said, troops killed a mother and her son in a March 5 attack on Inn-Nge-Daung village. They said 29 people were arrested, including 12 women and nine children, and all remain in military custody.

Family detained

Lwin Wai, of Yezagyo township’s Taung Oh village, told RFA that authorities who came looking for him detained his mother and two other family members when they learned he wasn’t there.

“I’m worried about my family. My sister is only 14 years old now. She knows nothing about politics. She just likes watching movies and playing games,” he said.

“My mother had a surgical operation only about four months ago. We all are suffering under this injustice. I’m so furious that we are being bullied by people with weapons. I just want those who are innocent to be released unharmed.”

Lwin Wai said his family members were first detained by the 258th Infantry Regiment and are now being held at the Yezagyo Police Station on charges of “defamation,” with a court appointment set for April 4.

He said he is wanted for alleged ties to the PDF because area youth regularly come to his electronics repair shop to use his Wi-Fi connection. But he believes the accusation is retribution by the junta-appointed village administrator, who he once had a dispute with.

Other reported incidents included the killing of two villagers during a March 26 military raid on Yezagyo township’s Kutote village, and the burning of more than 250 houses in four Gangaw township villages during joint raids by junta troops and Pyu Saw Htee fighters on March 23 and 24.

Blaming the PDF

Attempts by RFA to reach junta Deputy Information Minister Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun for comment on the raids in Magway region went unanswered Friday. He has previously attributed arson attacks on civilian homes to the PDF, which the military regime has labeled a terrorist organization.

In a recent statement, the military claimed that on March 13 a unit of 20 PDF members had attempted to detain the junta-appointed administrator of Yezagyo township’s Gwaygyo village and burned down 17 homes when they could not locate him. RFA was unable to independently verify the junta claims.

Chit Win Maung, a member of the anti-junta Magway People’s War Committee, told RFA the junta intentionally harasses and kills civilians in the region “because they cannot rule us.”

“They have no people, no youth, supporting them,” he said. “We can see that they are trying to get rid of anyone who wants to stop their fascist movement. From a human rights point of view, they are oppressing the people.”

Magway is one of several regions where the junta has encountered particularly fierce resistance since it seized power in a Feb. 1, 2021, coup and launched a multi-pronged offensive against the PDF and armed ethnic groups in Myanmar’s remote border regions.

According to Data For Myanmar, a group that researches the social impact of conflict, junta troops have burned at least 7,248 homes across the country since the coup. At least 1,148 of the homes were in Magway region, the group said.

Translated by Khin Maung Nyane. Written in English by Joshua Lipes.

The Philippines condemns the DPRK’s test of an intercontinental ballistic missile on 24 March 2022. Such reckless and provocative action undermines peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula, the entire region, and the world. We reiterate our call on the DPRK to comply with its international obligation under relevant UN Security Council resolutions, and commit to the process of constructive and peaceful dialogue.

Source: Republic of Philippines Department Of Foreign Affairs

SAN FRANCISCO — China now has the technology, hardware and know-how to coordinate a war from space, defense analysts say.

The People’s Liberation Army could park military equipment systems in space or use satellites to surveil the ground, experts say.

China may eventually use sensors to detect enemy submarines at sea, said Richard Bitzinger, U.S.-based visiting senior fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

“The military uses of space are pretty self-evident, and the Chinese would probably be foolish if they did not try and militarize space,” Bitzinger said. “It is a part of their explicit package of future reforms for the People’s Liberation Army.”

China’s 2019 white paper China’s National Defense in the New Era notes a growing role in space for the People’s Liberation Army Air Force.

“In line with the strategic requirements of integrating air and space capabilities as well as coordinating offensive and defensive operations, the PLAAF is accelerating the transition of its tasks from territorial air defense to both offensive and defensive operations,” the paper said.

Space hardware could help China carry out airstrikes with multiple missile types, said Andrew Yang, secretary-general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies think tank in Taiwan.

Developing capabilities

China’s air force will improve its capacity for early warnings, airstrikes and missile defense, the white paper said.

Researchers in China have tested hypersonic weapons — those that can fly at least five times faster than the speed of sound — including space glide vehicles that are launched into space on a rocket, Astronomy magazine reported in November. The country has tested, too, a fractional orbital bombardment system for missiles, the article said, citing reporting by the Financial Times.

China’s decades-old network of satellites can do “high-definition” physio-magnetic observation that’s good enough to detect military equipment on Earth, said Collin Koh, research fellow at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, a unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

“In the Chinese inventory of space satellites, they have those that are dedicated to ocean surveillance,” Koh said. “It has both civilian and potential military application.”

Chinese officials are trying to prevent their commercial-use BeiDou Navigation Satellite System from being jammed by a potential adversary, he added.

Where space would meet Earth

The Chinese military would most likely use military technology in space to seek control in the disputed East and South China seas and fend off challenges on the high seas of the Western Pacific just beyond China’s near seas, analysts say.

“Chinese doctrine says, ‘We need to control the near seas, and we need be able to project force and contest an adversary in the second island chain,’ ” said Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

That agenda represents a threat to Asian countries that contest sovereignty with China over the near seas, said Alexander Vuving, a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii.

Beijing has already placed military hangars and radar systems on tiny South China Sea islet outposts. Beijing competes there for maritime sovereignty with Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam. All six parties value the 3.5 million-square-kilometer waterway for fisheries and energy reserves.

China separately claims sovereignty over self-ruled Taiwan, having kept the island on edge for decades against a possible attack.

Eyes on US

The United States, the world’s largest military power, has sent warships into the South China Sea and near Taiwan as a warning to China, its former Cold War adversary, against further expansion.

“China is growing in terms of military power,” Vuving said. “There is a naval arms race between China and the U.S. China now has more ships than the U.S. China is projected to have the biggest navy in the region, even now by some estimates.”

The United States christened the use of space for military purposes decades ago. The U.S. Navy used space for atmospheric and high-altitude research before the U.S. space agency, NASA, was formed in 1958. The U.S. Air Force still launches GPS and missile-defense tracking satellites.

Neither China nor the United States has an “impenetrable” space-based shield against enemy missiles, which then-U.S. President Ronald Reagan sought in the 1980s, Bitzinger said. But, he said, China is trying to be one of the world’s top two or three countries in military space.

Source: Voice of America

GENERAL REVIEW OF DECEMBER 2021

For the month of December 2021, a total of 204 disasters were reported. The ASEAN Member States that were affected are Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Most of the disasters (88.73%) occurred in Indonesia but the highest number of affected people were reported for the Philippines at more than 8 million. The number of affected persons from the Philippines comprised the majority of the tally for the month of December (87.36%) and is attributed with the developments of Tropical Cyclone RAI. The share of the disaster-affected people for the other ASEAN Member States are as follows: (1) Indonesia-8.6%, (2) Malaysia-0.71%, (3) Myanmar-0.001%, (4) Thailand-0.15%, and (5) Viet Nam-%. December 2021 saw disasters affecting 1,410 per 100,000 people* and displacing 117 per 100,000 people* in the region, which were 8 times and 28 times higher respectively compared with the previous month. December 2021 accounts for 14.51% of the total disasters (1,406), 71.69% of the total cost of damages (814.8 Million USD), and 69.83% of the total cost of assistance provided (21.1 Million USD) reported so far in the current year.

Most of the disasters that have occurred in December 2021 are floods (74.02%) and is consistently the most recorded type of disaster for December of the previous year and December on a five-year average (2016-2020). December 2021 saw disasters caused by hydrometeorological hazards (flood, rain-induced landslides, storm, winds) affecting 99.68% of the total affected persons for the month. The reported disasters in the region for December 2021 in comparison to the historical data (average for December 2016-2020) indicates that there were 7.5x more reported disasters; 3.4x more people affected; 4.6x more people displaced; 15.7x more houses affected to some extent; 5.8x more lives lost; 16.2x more people suffering injuries; and lastly, 10.5x more people that have gone missing.

*Computed based on 2020 population data from worldometers.com

ANALYSIS

According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), compared to the average value from 2001-2020, during December 2021, rainfall was above-average over coastal central parts of Viet Nam, Peninsular Malaysia, and the southern half of the Philippines. The largest positive anomalies (wetter conditions) were detected over central Philippines and Peninsular Malaysia (due to Super Typhoon RAI and Tropical Depression 29W respectively, which made landfall in mid-December), for both satellite-derived rainfall estimates datasets (GSMaP-NRT and CMORPH-Blended). As expected, the start of the dry season for the northern ASEAN region resulted in negligible rainfall anomalies for the rest of Mainland Southeast Asia, where only four disasters caused by floods were reported. Meanwhile, for the equatorial ASEAN region, a mix of above- and below-average rainfalls were observed and accordingly, a number of hydrometeorological disasters were reported.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

In the month of December 2021, the Northeast Monsoon was established over a majority of the ASEAN region and is expected to persist until late March 2022. It is during this period that inter-monsoon conditions will typically start to develop. Climatologically, the northern ASEAN region experiences its traditional dry season during the period with the prevailing low-level winds blowing from the northeast or east. Wet conditions will typically prevail over the southern ASEAN region as the monsoon rain band progresses south of the equator. This is seen to occur during the beginning of the outlook period before becoming drier and occasionally windy. This happens as the region experiences the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon starting late January to early March. The prevailing low-level winds over the southern ASEAN region are expected to blow from the north or northwest. Hydrometeorological disasters are likely as the monsoon rain band moves towards the south of the equator and are less likely for the northern ASEAN region and the southern ASEAN region in the coming weeks during the transition into the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon.

In the coming period (January to March 2022), there is an increased chance of above-normal rainfall over eastern parts of the Maritime Continent and the Malay Peninsula. La Niña conditions are present. Models are predicting weak to moderate La Niña conditions until March-April 2022, after which the conditions are predicted to return to neutral during April-June 2022. Warmer-than-usual temperature is expected for much of the Maritime Continent (except the Malay Peninsula where near-normal temperature is predicted) and Myanmar during JFM 2022.

Hotspot activities and smoke haze situation are seen to intensify especially in northern parts of Myanmar as the traditional dry season over the northern ASEAN region progresses. Subdued hotspot activities are expected in the southern ASEAN region due to the current wet conditions, but localised hotspots can still occur occasionally during the transition to the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon.

*Note from ASMC: The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general and based on the latest runs from models provided by the SEA RCC-Network LRF node.

For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Source: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance