Day: March 6, 2022

On Feb. 24, in a day that will be remembered forever, Russia’s Vladimir Putin started a war with Ukraine. Though he avoided officially declaring “war” and opted instead to call it a “special military operation,” at any rate, he launched a premeditated invasion.

Even before the war, when the world turned its focus on the Ukraine crisis, the standoff in the Taiwan Strait was not forgotten.

Dan Blumenthal, director of the Asian Studies program at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), warned that Beijing could use the Russian strategy in Ukraine in its playbook against Taiwan to orchestrate a political-military crisis to coerce Taiwan into submission.

If the United States does not want to be caught off guard, it should start preparing for such a scenario today, the former Pentagon official wrote in Foreign Policy a week before the invasion.

This association is of deep and pragmatic significance, and Blumenthal’s call resonated not only in the U.S. but in Europe as well.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that “If Ukraine is invaded, the shock will echo around the world … and those echoes will be heard in East Asia, and they will be heard in Taiwan.”

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told Nikkei Asia in a written interview that a key part of the important economic, environmental, and geopolitical balance of the 21st century is playing out in the Indo-Pacific region.

Security in the Taiwan Strait is of utmost importance to the security of the Indo-Pacific region. France is “very keen to act to prevent any conflict.” Meanwhile, “We condemn any attempt to undermine the status quo, any action likely to cause an incident that would lead to an escalation. This is a concern we share with our European partners.”

This is the first time that two major European countries have publicly supported Taiwan in security issues. From the Russian invasion of Ukraine to the tension and standoffs in the Taiwan Strait, though the conditions may be different, the aggression is in essence the same. They should be condemned and stopped by the international community.

Former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice suggested last October in an online symposium hosted by a British think tank that China will not launch a full-scale attack on Taiwan.

Instead, Beijing could use paramilitary forces to infiltrate Taiwan and create various kinds of disruptions within Taiwan, such as on social media, cutting off underwater cables, creating cybersecurity threats, and nurturing and controlling pro-Beijing camps to subvert Taiwan, just like what Putin is doing in Ukraine, Rice said.

Now that Putin has launched the attack on Ukraine and his troops are pushing ever closer to Kyiv, faster than Rice anticipated, the West may have to realign and restudy what they know about Putin.

Putin once said that China does not need to unify Taiwan through military might; the goal of unification can be achieved through mighty economic power.

What will Xi Jinping do next? It would not be easy to launch a full-fledged war against Taiwan. Xi’s short-term goals is likely to be to maintain high tension in the Taiwan Strait with military means to deter Taiwan from leaning towards the U.S., declaring independence, or making any changes in U.S.-Taiwan relations (towards formal diplomatic ties or a formal alliance).

In the medium-to-long term, it is within Xi Jinping’s goals to bring about change in the world order to make China an emerging superpower. It is also his intention to complete Beijing’s proclaimed mission of unification with Taiwan by following the path of modernization in the middle of this century.

How Xi can accomplish these goals will depend on how he deals with the Taiwan issue.  “Forcing negotiations through war” is one possible way. The United States is a key factor. If the United States does not want to be caught off-guard, it should preemptively begin to prepare for such a day.

Qi Leyi, a veteran observer of China-Taiwan relations and Indo-Pacific security affairs, is the host of RFA’s program “Military: No Restricted Areas.” This commentary reflects his personal views.

Translated by Min Eu.

The impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — a country long known as the “breadbasket of Europe” because of the prodigious amounts of wheat, corn and other cereal grains that it produces — will extend far beyond Europe, wreaking havoc on global food supplies, experts from aid agencies say.

Ukraine produces 16% of the world’s corn, and Ukraine and Russia combined produce 29% of the wheat sold on world markets. Much of what they export goes to Africa, the Middle East and South Asia, and with virtually no cargo moving out of either county’s Black Sea ports, prices for the staple foods are spiking. Still unknown is whether an enduring war in Ukraine will damage this year’s harvest or prevent the sowing of crops for the next growing season.

Preexisting food crisis

Globally, food prices were already at a 10-year high before Russia invaded Ukraine, according to the United Nations World Food Program. Since Feb. 25, the day after Russia launched its full-scale invasion, wheat futures have risen by as much as 40% and corn futures by as much as 16%.

Because the war is already disrupting global fuel supplies — a problem that will worsen dramatically if sanctions on Russia are expanded to cover its energy exports — higher transportation costs are contributing to the rise in prices.

“We’re already facing a hunger crisis globally that we haven’t seen, at least this century,” Jordan Teague, an interim director for the charity group Bread for the World, told VOA.

“This is yet one more example of conflict generating hunger around the world, and the world just can’t sustain this,” said Steve Taravella, a senior spokesperson for the U.N. WFP. “We’ve got Yemen, we’ve got South Sudan, we’ve got Afghanistan. A significant amount of WFP resources is devoted to addressing hunger caused by man-made conflicts around the world, and this is just one more on top of that,” he told VOA.

Areas of concern

Teague said that while multiple countries are facing serious food shortages, her group is particularly concerned about several in the Middle East and East Africa, all of which rely on imports from Ukraine and Russia.

In Yemen, she said, tens of thousands of people are experiencing famine and another 16 million are facing a food crisis and in danger of famine. Even before the current crisis, she said, price inflation, currency depreciation and depleted foreign reserves had left Yemen struggling to import food.

Similarly, Lebanon, which, Teague said, imports about 60% of its wheat from Ukraine, is having difficulty buying enough food. More than one-third of the population there is already food insecure, and that doesn’t count the thousands of refugees displaced by the conflict in Syria, who are largely dependent on humanitarian assistance.

Ethiopia, currently locked in a brutal civil war, also faces a hunger crisis that the Ukraine conflict is likely to make worse. The country relies on imports for about 25% of its wheat, Teague said.

UN to continue aid

Ukraine is the WFP’s largest supplier of wheat and split peas, two key staples it uses to feed the hungry, Taravella said. However, while the shortages caused by the Ukraine conflict will increasingly strain his organization’s ability to deliver food to the more than 135 million people it serves around the world, the WFP’s programs will continue to operate.

“Because we have supply chain expertise and we have, for years, developed strategies for making sure we can get commodities into hard-to-reach countries in difficult times, we have other sources,” he said. “I’m not concerned that WFP won’t be able to find wheat or split peas or other things that we rely on Ukraine for. What we’re concerned about is what we and others will have to pay for them, because prices are going to go up.”

The agency might be forced to reduce the per-person ration of food it provides, he said. “It will cost us more, which will mean we may have to cut rations. Those are very real implications,” he said.

Ukraine food situation shaky

Within Ukraine, the fighting appears not to not have cut off food supplies, but media reports indicate that stores are finding it increasingly difficult to remain open.

Fozzy Group, the country’s largest supermarket chain, continued to operate most of its stores this week, even in cities such as Kharkiv and Kyiv, which are facing direct attacks from Russian troops. Stores have had to close on an ad hoc basis, sometimes with little notice, when managers determine that the risks of remaining open are too great.

According to the news agency Interfax-Ukraine, a group of retail outlets and the country’s Ministry of Digital Transformation have created an online map that indicates whether a grocery store is open and its hours of operation.

 

 

 

Source: Voice of America

More than 100 hungry and weak Rohingya Muslims were found on a beach in Indonesia’s northernmost province of Aceh on Sunday after weeks at sea, officials said.

The group arrived on Jangka beach near Alue Buya Pasi, a fishing village in Bireuen district, early Sunday. The villagers who saw the 114 ethnic Rohingya on a rickety wooden boat helped them to land and then reported their arrival to authorities, said Badruddin Yunus, the leader of the local tribal fishing community.

“They look very weak from hunger and dehydration after a long and severe voyage at sea,” said Yunus, adding it wasn’t clear where the group was traveling from or where it was headed because none of them could speak English or Malay.

The 58 men, 21 women and 35 children were given shelter and received help from villagers, police and military, while local authorities including the coronavirus task force were helping to process them, Yunus said.

More than 700,000 Rohingya Muslims have fled from Buddhist-majority Myanmar to refugee camps in Bangladesh since August 2017, when the Myanmar military launched a clearance operation in response to attacks by a rebel group. Myanmar security forces have been accused of mass rapes, killings and the burning of thousands of homes.

Groups of Rohingya have attempted to leave the crowded camps in Bangladesh and travel by sea in hazardous voyages to other Muslim-majority countries in the region.

Muslim-dominated Malaysia has been a common destination for the boats, and traffickers have promised the refugees a better life there. But many Rohingya refugees who land in Malaysia face detention.

Although Indonesia is not a signatory to the United Nations’ 1951 Refugee Convention, the UNHCR said that a 2016 presidential regulation provides a national legal framework governing the treatment of refugees on boats in distress near Indonesia and to help them disembark.

These provisions have been implemented for years, most recently in December when 105 Rohingya refugees were rescued off the coast of Bireuen toward its neighboring Lhokseumawe, a coastal town in the North Aceh district.

 

 

Source: Voice of America

TEHRAN– Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) yesterday agreed to “exchange documents” by mid-June, to settle remaining issues. Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI), made the remarks at a joint press conference with Rafael Grossi, visiting head of the IAEA, in Tehran.

 

“Today, we reviewed the remaining issues with Mr. Grossi… and reached a conclusion. It was decided to exchange the required documents between Iran and the IAEA by the end of (Iranian month of) Khordad,” which falls on June 21, said Eslami.

 

“At this stage of the negotiations in Vienna, and in the final stages of the talks, one of the red lines of Iran is that, the alleged cases should be closed forever and do not cause any inconvenience,” he added.

 

Political influences and lobbying should not affect the decisions of the UN nuclear watchdog, Eslami said, adding that, Iran and the IAEA should follow the issues in a completely professional way and behave within the framework of expertise, as there is no room for any political measures.

 

The AEOI head blamed Israel for creating “obstacles,” in the way of Iran’s “peaceful nuclear programme,” saying that, if someone wants to obstruct the Vienna negotiations with false claims, Iran will use its authority and deal with it.

 

For his part, Grossi said that, there are still some specific issues that need to be resolved, hence, they had now “decided to try a practical, pragmatic approach” to overcome them.

 

He stressed, the Vienna talks and the Iran-IAEA cooperation are interrelated, adding, if Iran and the IAEA do not reach an agreement on safeguards issues, it will be difficult to reach an agreement in the Austrian capital.

 

“It is very important to reach a mutual understanding for cooperation. Nuclear energy is very important for the development of countries, including Iran,” he said.

 

Iran and the remaining parties to the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, are currently involved in negotiations in Vienna, seeking to settle disputes about the revival of the JCPOA.

 

Iran signed the JCPOA with the world powers in July 2015. However, former U.S. President, Donald Trump, pulled Washington out of the agreement in May, 2018 and reimposed unilateral sanctions on Iran, which prompted the latter to drop some of its nuclear commitments one year later and advance its halted nuclear programmes.

 

Source: NAM NEWS NETWORK