October 13, 2021

Review of Regional Weather for September 2021

1. Overview

1.1 During September 2021, there was above-average rainfall recorded over much of the ASEAN region (Figure 1). The exceptions were northern Sumatra and northern Philippines, and also parts of northern Myanmar, Peninsular Malaysia, Borneo, and Papua, which received a mix of below- to near-average rainfall. The largest positive anomalies (wetter conditions) were recorded over eastern Mainland Southeast Asia (due to Tropical Storm Conson and Tropical Storm Dianmu which made landfall in early-September and late-September respectively) and southern Myanmar for both satellite-derived rainfall estimates datasets (GSMaP-NRT and CMORPH-Blended), with GSMaP-NRT also recording larger anomalies over eastern Borneo, northern and eastern Sulawesi, and Maluku Islands.

1.2 The observed rainfall anomaly pattern of above-average rainfall for much of the ASEAN region is broadly consistent with the predictions from the subseasonal weather outlooks for September 2021 (23 August – 5 September, 6 – 19 September and 20 September – 3 October).

Figure 1: Rainfall anomalies for the month of September 2021 based on GSMaP-NRT data (left) and CMORPH-Blended data (right). The climatological reference period is 2001-2020. Green colour denotes above-average rainfall (wetter), while orange denotes below-average rainfall (drier).

1.3 Most of the ASEAN region experienced below to near-average temperatures during September 2021 (Figure 2), in line with the wetter conditions recorded. The exceptions were warmer-than-average temperatures recorded over the southeastern Maritime Continent and northern Myanmar.

Figure 2: Temperature anomalies for the month of September 2021 based on ERA-5 reanalysis. The climatological reference period is 2001-2020. Red colour denotes above-average temperature (warmer), while blue denotes below-average temperature (colder).

2. Climate Drivers

2.1 The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO, Figure 3) signal over the Indian Ocean (Phase 3) appeared incoherent for most of September 2021 due to interference with other tropical waves. In the last week of September, an MJO signal emerged over the Maritime Continent (Phase 4). Phase 3 tends to bring wetter conditions to western Maritime Continent while Phase 4 tends to bring wetter conditions to much of the region at this time of the year.

Figure 3: The MJO phase diagram. The diagram illustrates the movement of the MJO through different phases, which correspond to different locations along the equator (denoted in the text with the first day of the month in blue and the last day of the month in red). The distance of the index from the centre of the diagram is related to the strength of the MJO. Values within the grey circle are considered weak or indiscernible (data from the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia).

2.2 In September, there have been some signs of La Niña-like conditions developing in the tropical Pacific. However, atmospheric indicators (OLR and wind anomalies) have not shown consistent La Niña-like conditions yet. A weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was present and at the seasonal timescale, negative IOD events tend to bring wetter conditions to the southern Maritime Continent.

October 13, 2021

Former Myanmar President Says Military Tried to Force His Resignation

Myanmar’s detained former president Win Myint testified in court Tuesday that senior military officials attempted to force him to resign, citing a false health condition on the day of the coup that saw the junta seize power, according to his lawyers.

Speaking during a hearing for his trial on charges of “defamation” at a court in the capital Naypyidaw, Win Myint said that two high-ranking officers—possibly lieutenant generals or generals—came into his home early on the morning of Feb. 1 and demanded that he step down due to “ill health,” his defense team said in a statement.

When he refused, the officers threatened him, but he would not be swayed, his lawyers said.

“The president turned down their proposal, saying he was in good health,” the statement said.

“The officers warned him the denial would cause him much harm, but the president told them he would rather die than consent.”

According to the statement, Win Myint ordered the officers not to orchestrate a power grab and demanded that they adhere to the law.

The former president was detained later that day, along with ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) leader and State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi and several other high-ranking party officials, and the military took control of the country.

In the more than eight months since the coup, security forces have killed 1,167 civilians and arrested at least 7,219, according to the Bangkok-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP)—mostly during crackdowns on anti-junta protests.

The junta says it unseated the NLD government because, they claimed, the party had engineered a landslide victory in Myanmar’s November 2020 election through widespread voter fraud. It has yet to present evidence of its claims and public unrest is at an all-time high.

Win Myint’s defense team said that during the hearing on Tuesday, prosecutors repeatedly asked him about the formation of the shadow National Unity Government (NUG), Parliament’s Pyidaungsu Hluttaw Committee of Representatives (CRPH), and the anti-junta People’s Defense Force (PDF) militia.

The former president responded that he had nothing to do with thes groups, which were established after his arrest, and his defense team objected to further inquiries about the groups’ activities, saying the questions were irrelevant to the case.

Defamation charge

Win Myint, Aung San Suu Kyi, and former Naypyidaw Mayor Myo Aung all face the charge of “defamation of the state” under Article 505 (b) of Myanmar’s Penal Code related to two statements issued by the NLD Central Executive Committee (CEC) on Feb. 7 and 13 that prosecutors say were meant to disrupt public order and instigate against the state.

Win Myint has pleaded not guilty to the charge.

The NLD CEC’s Feb. 7 statement urged foreign governments, diplomatic missions, United Nations agencies, and international organizations not to recognize the junta and claimed the military had violated Myanmar’s 2008 constitution by staging a coup against elected government leaders.

The Feb. 13 statement, which was released while the junta was circulating a restrictive bill on cyber security, claimed that all regulations, rules, and laws enacted by the military government were illegal.

The court in Naypyidaw on June 29 overruled objections by defense lawyers that the statements were inadmissible because they were released after the leaders were detained and held incommunicado.

Reported by RFA’s Myanmar Service. Translated by Khin Maung Nyane. Written in English by Joshua Lipes.

October 13, 2021

Convoy Ambush Kills at Least 30 Junta Soldiers in Myanmar’s Sagaing Region

Clashes between Myanmar’s military and People’s Defense Force (PDF) militias in embattled Sagaing region have left at least 30 government troops dead, PDF sources said Tuesday, while reports emerged of soldiers loyal to the junta attacking civilians and looting their possessions.

The fighting took place on Monday as reinforced junta soldiers launched a clearing operation in the townships of Pale, Yinmabin, Monywa, Mingin, Hteegyaing, and Chaung-Oo, according to PDF members and residents. All six townships have seen frequent clashes since the military seized power from Myanmar’s democratically elected government in a Feb. 1 coup.

At least 30 government troops, including a tactical commander, were killed Monday morning when a military convoy triggered landmines outside of Pale township, local PDF spokesman Boh Nagar told RFA’s Myanmar Service.

“We had been waiting for the convoy since [Sunday] as we heard a senior commander would be coming along,” he said.

“He was in a small car in the middle of the 23 vehicles and we waited patiently to blow it up. He was fatally wounded in the head. Our area of Sagaing has the strongest resistance and fights the fiercest battles.”

Boh Nagar also claimed that his militia had ambushed a military convoy in Pale township twice on Tuesday morning but said the extent of the damage was unknown.

Additionally, PDF members told RFA that a grenade attack on the No. 2 Police Station in Monywa township left at least two officers dead on Monday, while militiamen shot and killed a soldier in a guard tower in Minging township’s Kyauk-khe-det village the same day.

Also on Monday, four militia fighters were killed in a shootout with local security forces near Hteegyaing township’s Laytha village, a member of the local PDF told RFA, speaking on condition of anonymity out of fear of reprisal.

“The military came in huge numbers, hoping to find many PDF fighters in the villages,” the PDF member said, adding that the soldiers were troops from the junta’s 33rd Division.

“They mostly used heavy weapons most of the time and our young fighters bravely fought them back … [but] four people were killed in the incident.”

The PDF member said that a fifth person from the militia—a 50-year-old man named Tin Nyunt—was “killed after being arrested,” but did not provide further details.

He said soldiers had arrested at least 20 residents of Hteegyaing, including a doctor, from Oct. 9-11, and claimed that around 100 government troops were stationed at the school in Laytha village as of Tuesday.

Conflicting accounts

Speaking to RFA, the military’s deputy information minister Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun confirmed that fighting had taken place in Sagaing on Monday but denied PDF claims that an officer or any other soldier had been killed.

“In the incidents in both Pale and Hteegyaing, there were some casualties,” he acknowledged.

“The enemy numbers only 10-15. They dynamited our vehicles in the attack. Some of our soldiers were wounded, but not in a life-threatening way, and we confiscated some of the enemy’s weapons and ammunition.”

Zaw Min Tun said that one of the vehicles in the convoy that had escaped the attack in Pale was later damaged in a landmine ambush near Yinmabin township’s Tebin Kan village, leaving several troops wounded.

He added that the military had only suffered major casualties once in Sagaing, during a clash in Pinglebu township on Sept. 22—a claim regional PDF groups dispute.

Residents of Yinmabin township confirmed that the landmine ambush had occurred near Tebin Kan on Monday and said junta troops were quick to respond, forcing villagers to evacuate.

“The clash occurred near Tebin Kan village yesterday,” said one resident, who declined to be named.

“When they reached the cemetery west of [nearby] Waran village, several residents fled with their belongings.”

Soldiers then searched Tebin Kan village before setting fire to two homes and confiscating five motorcycles, the resident said.

Myanmar’s military has attempted to justify its Feb. 1 overthrow of the democratically elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government by claiming the party had stolen the country’s November 2020 ballot through voter fraud.

The junta has yet to provide evidence of its claims and has violently repressed anti-coup protests, killing at least 1,167 people and arresting 7,219 others, according to the Bangkok-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP).

On Sept. 7, the shadow National Unity Government (NUG) declared a nationwide state of emergency and called for open rebellion against junta rule, prompting an escalation of attacks on military targets by various allied pro-democracy militias and ethnic armed groups.

Reported by RFA’s Myanmar Service. Translated Khin Maung Nyane. Written in English by Joshua Lipes.