Day: July 27, 2021

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Verisk’s AIR Worldwide Enhances Extreme Event Models for Japan With Release of Updated Earthquake and Typhoon Models

BOSTON, July 27, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide has announced the release of significantly updated AIR Earthquake and Typhoon Models for Japan. The past several years has reaffirmed the vulnerability of Japan to typhoons and earthquakes and prompted updates to AIR’s Industry Exposure Database, earthquake hazard and both earthquake and typhoon vulnerability including building, contents and business interruption damage. These updated models provide insurance and reinsurance companies with a comprehensive view of risk and account for insurance policy conditions specific to Japan. AIR Worldwide is a Verisk (Nasdaq:VRSK) business.

“Ten years ago the M9.0 megathrust Tohoku earthquake became the most widely instrumented earthquake in history, generating copious ground motion data, damage observations, and detailed insurance claims data,” said Dr. Kazuya Fujimura, vice president and managing director, Verisk. “The Tohoku earthquake not only informed the view of risk associated with megathrust earthquakes in Japan but also globally, e.g., the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand and the Lesser Antilles subduction zone in the Caribbean, where, with limited historical data, the possibility of mega (M9.0 or larger) earthquakes cannot be ruled out.”

The AIR Earthquake Model for Japan is a fully stochastic model that captures the complex seismicity of Japan by generating events along known crustal faults, along and within subduction zones, and within different regions and zones with little to no historical earthquake activity through smoothed background seismicity.

Our updated Japan earthquake model is informed by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP’s) most recent seismicity model but with modifications to the time-dependent rupture possibilities (TDRP) estimates for earthquakes on the Nankai Trough and some crustal faults to better reflect uncertainties in the HERP 2019 TDRP model and parameters.

In the updated AIR Earthquake Model for Japan, numerically simulated tsunamis generated by all M>7.0 tsunamigenic earthquakes from our time-dependent, stochastic earthquake catalog were used to determine coastal inundation and flow velocities. The stochastic catalog reflects AIR’s view on time-dependent rupture probabilities for different sources, including tsunamigenic ones such as those along the Nankai Trough. Our model incorporates the latest data sets, including detailed three-dimensional subduction interface/fault geometries, high-resolution bathymetry/elevation data with coastal levees, dikes and sea walls, regional tidal solutions to account for the effect of astronomical tides, and land use/land cover (LULC) data to capture land friction characteristics that impact runup extent.

AIR’s updated Japan earthquake model also incorporates insights into ground motion prediction equations, including the weighting of two produced after the Tohoku earthquake and three produced before, to provide more accurate ground motion calculations for megathrust earthquakes, magnitude saturation, and new magnitude scaling. In addition, our insights into buildings’ seismic response gained from damage observations, detailed claims data, and changes to design and construction practice as it relates to tsunami risk inform our damage functions. With the updated seismicity and ground motion modules as well as the latest understanding of the vulnerability of the built environment, AIR’s model presents the most realistic view of the earthquake risk in Japan.

“While no model can predict when or if the next large tsunamigenic earthquake in Japan will occur, using the updated AIR Earthquake Model for Japan, can help prepare for tsunami losses by providing a detailed and accurate view of tsunami risk in Japan, said Dr. Bingming Shen-Tu, vice president of research, AIR Worldwide.”

“In 2018 and 2019, four powerful typhoons struck Japan, incurring total insured losses of approximately USD 30 billion from wind and flood damage,” said Dr. Boyko Dodov, vice president of research, AIR Worldwide. “As is the case after any major storm or severe storm season, we have been analyzing and reanalyzing a plethora of meteorological data, market exposure and company claims data sets from these and previous historical storms.”

The AIR Typhoon Model for Japan is part of the AIR Northwest Pacific Basinwide Typhoon Model. Japan’s location in the Pacific Northwest Basin combined with its unique topography puts it at risk from typhoon winds, precipitation, and storm surge. The model is a fully stochastic, event-based model that shares a catalog with other AIR-modeled countries in the region, including mainland China, Southeast Asia, and South Korea. The Japan typhoon model captures the effects of tropical storm and typhoon winds, precipitation-induced flooding, and storm surge on insured properties in Japan.

Wind intensity computations are based on a storm’s intensity, size, location, forward speed, and direction, as well as the underlying terrain and land use in the region. The effect of extratropical transitioning is also included to accurately assess the full impact on properties due to precipitation from a tropical cyclone. Flood intensity computations are based on total accumulated precipitation both on-plain and off-plain, soil type, land use/land cover data, and topography. The model includes separate damage functions for wind, precipitation-induced flood, and storm surge perils. Additionally, the model explicitly accounts for the regional variability in wind vulnerability due to differences in regional construction practices. The model also considers the effects of existing flood mitigation measures and lessons learned from the 2018 and 2019 typhoon season.

The AIR Earthquake and AIR Typhoon Models for Japan are available in the 2021 releases of Touchstone® and Touchstone Re catastrophe risk management systems.

About AIR Worldwide
AIR Worldwide (AIR) provides risk modeling solutions that make individuals, businesses, and society more resilient to extreme events. In 1987, AIR Worldwide founded the catastrophe modeling industry and today models the risk from natural catastrophes, terrorism, pandemics, casualty catastrophes, and cyber incidents. Insurance, reinsurance, financial, corporate, and government clients rely on AIR’s advanced science, software, and consulting services for catastrophe risk management, insurance-linked securities, longevity modeling, site-specific engineering analyses, and agricultural risk management. AIR Worldwide, a Verisk (Nasdaq:VRSK) business, is headquartered in Boston, with additional offices in North America, Europe, and Asia. For more information, please visit www.air-worldwide.com.

Kevin Long
AIR Worldwide
+1-617-267-6645
klong@air-worldwide.com
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Thailand, Flooding, Landslide and Wind in 14 Provinces (TC Cempaka) (23 Jul 2021)

AFFECTED AREA/S

 

Kalasin, Mae Hong Son, Pattani, Prachin Buri, Trat, Yasothon

 

DESCRIPTION

 

As of 27 July, From the situation of depression “Chermpaka” covering the coast of upper Vietnam.and the Gulf of Tonkin In addition, the southwest monsoon prevails over the Andaman Sea. Southern and Gulf of ThailandNorth Northeast Eastern and Southern There is heavy rain in some areas causing flash floods.Strong winds and slide soil in the period of 23 Jul ’64 – present, the affected area in 14 provinces (Mae Hong SonPhichit Phitsanulok Tak Loei Kalasin Yasothon Ubon Ratchathani Prachinburi Chachoengsao Trat Ratchaburi PattaniNakhon Si Thammarat ) 22 A. 44 Tambon 108 m. 226 households affected, no injuries andDied At present

 

From the situation of depression “Chempaka” covering the coast of upper Vietnam and the Gulf of Tonkin In addition, the southwest monsoon prevails over the Andaman Sea, the South and the Gulf of Thailand, causing The northern and northeastern regions have heavy rainfall in some areas causing gusts, floods and slides. In the period of 23 July 2021 – present, there are 6 provinces affected areas ( Mae Hong Son, Kalasin, Yasothon, Prachinburi, Trat.Pattani) 8 A. 12 Tambon 23 m. 64 households affected , no injuries or deaths.

 

Source: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance

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Flash Update #1 – M 6.5 Earthquake in Tojo Una Una, Indonesia (27 Jul 2021)

Indonesia

 

At 1909 HRS UTC+7 of 26 July, a M6.5 tectonic earthquake with epicentre at 121.92°E, 0.73°S and a depth of 10km (located 59 km Northeast of Tojo Una Una) rocked Tojo Una Una Regency. (source: BMKG)

 

Considering the location of the epicentres of the location and the depth of the hypocentre, the earthquakes that occurred are results of the activity of the local fault. Analysis shows that the earthquakes have a normal fault mechanism according to the Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG).

 

Further, according to BMKG, the shock of this earthquake was felt in Ampana V – VI MMI (Felt by most of people, many people frightened and run outdoors); in Luwuk, Poso, Morowali V MMI (Felt by most of people, many people wake up); Bolmong Selatan, Bolmong Timur, Kotamobagu, Kota Gorontalo, Kabupaten Gorontalo, Buol, Bone Bolango, Pohuwato III-IV MMI (many people felt it in the house during the day). Modeling results show that this earthquake DOES NOT have a TSUNAMI POTENTIAL.

 

BMKG monitoring results showed that there was seven aftershocks (M4.1) with a maximum magnitude of M4.2 as of 26 July at 2220 HRS UTC+7. BMKG mentioned that there was eight strong earthquakes (more than M6.0) including M6.5 earthquake that occurred in 26 July 2021 since 1923.

 

According to the ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS) and Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global), based on the preliminary data, earthquakes of this depth and magnitude are expected to result in moderate to severe shaking within 130.0 km (80.78 miles) from the epicenter. It is estimated that 429,193 people, 95,376 households, and $3.96 Billion (USD) of infrastructure (total replacement cost) are concentrated within this radius.

 

According to BNPB, as of 27 July at 0822 HRS UTC+7, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Daerah (BPBD) Tojo Una Una Regency reported that the M6.5 earthquake was felt strongly for three seconds in Tojo Una Una Regency. A few areas are experienced power outage after the earthquake in the regency.

 

BMKG advised people that reside on the coasts of Bolaang and Bunta to stay away from the beach, to stay calm, and not be influenced by issues that cannot be justified. It was also advised to avoid buildings that are cracked or damaged by the earthquake.

 

According to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Bencana Geologi (PVMBG), Central Sulawesi Province is located in the low to high earthquake disaster prone area including Tojo Una Una Regency.

 

As of 27 July at 0900 HRS UTC+7, BNPB reported that a few people previously displaced to higher places have already come back to their houses.

 

The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates

 

Source: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance

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Viet Nam, Flooding, Landslide, Wind and Storm in Southern Central and Southern Provinces (TC Cempaka) (24 Jul 2021)

AFFECTED AREA/S

 

Mường Lát

 

DESCRIPTION

 

On the morning of July 26, the Standing Office of the Central Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control held a briefing on natural disaster prevention and control. At the briefing, Mr. Khoa said that according to a quick report from the VPTT, the Steering Committee for Disaster Prevention and Control, the provinces of Binh Thuan, Gia Lai, Ca Mau, Hau Giang, Vinh Long and Can Tho city were affected by rain accompanied by thunderstorms. Damages are as follows: About people: 02 people died due to house collapse (in Vinh Long and Ca Mau); Returning home: 137 houses collapsed, roofs removed (Binh Thuan: 07 houses; Gia Lai: 01 houses; Hau Giang: 08 houses; Ca Mau: 12 houses; Vinh Long: 75 houses; Can Tho: 34 houses); Landslide: 30m river bank in Ngoc Hien district, Ca Mau province.

 

On the morning of July 24, Vice Chairman of the People’s Committee of Muong Lat district (Thanh Hoa province) Hoang Van Dung said that in the past two days in the district, there was heavy rain due to the influence of the weakening tropical depression from Typhoon Cempaka. Assessing the complicated flood situation, the district government evacuated 305 households with about 1,400 people to a safe place.

 

Accordingly, the communes of Muong Lat that had to be evacuated included: Muong Ly, Trung Ly, Pu Nhi, Muong Chanh and Tam Chung.

 

Flooding caused some damage in Muong Lat. On the afternoon of July 23, floods poured into Sim stream, passing through Quang Chieu commune, swept away the temporary bridge from Pung village to three hamlets, Suoi Tut and Con Dao villages, making it difficult for nearly 180 households to travel. The government has sent people to guard, not allowing people and vehicles to pass.

 

Source: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance

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$400 Million ADB Loan to Help Lift Youth Employment in the Philippines

MANILA, The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a $400 million policy-based loan to support the Philippine government’s efforts to expand youth employment and skills programs to help young Filipinos find quality jobs.

 

The Facilitating Youth School-to-Work Transition Program, Subprogram 3, builds on nearly a decade of ADB support to the government in shortening the time at-risk young Filipinos spend to find work after leaving school. The program will assist the Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) in boosting the job facilitation capacity of Public Employment Services Offices (PESOs) nationwide, strengthening labor market programs, improving workplace skills development, and creating a healthy work environment.

 

“The pandemic has led to job losses in many sectors, especially among young people. There is an urgent need to help young Filipinos find work through innovative labor market programs and skills development initiatives,” said ADB Director for Public Management, Financial Sector, and Trade for Southeast Asia Jose Antonio Tan III. “This new loan reflects our long-term commitment to ensuring that young people find jobs to improve their lives and create a wider employment base for post-pandemic economic growth.”

 

The subprogram follows the two loans approved in 2017 and 2019. Those loans helped fund reforms that led to full operationalization of PESOs and established DOLE’s flagship JobStart Philippines program, which provided over 20,000 at-risk youth with life skills training and paid internships, and strengthened apprenticeships. The third subprogram will also strengthen government measures to address the impact of the pandemic on youth employment.

 

“This loan will help young job seekers, especially women, access training opportunities and enhance their skills development. It will strengthen labor market policies and provide assistance to returning Filipino workers who lost jobs overseas because of the pandemic through group livelihood and entrepreneurship programs,” said ADB Principal Financial Sector Specialist for Southeast Asia Stephen Schuster.

 

Among the reforms supported by the new loan are the creation of a Php1 billion ($200 million) Tulong Trabaho (Job Assistance) Scholarship Fund, unemployment insurance scheme, and the First Time Jobseekers Act. The program assisted in the development of an online Life Skills Training program for JobStart covering digital literacy, mental health, reproductive health and rights, women’s empowerment, and work values.

 

ADB is preparing more support for the labor sector in 2022, including a technical and vocational education and training (TVET) project and a post-coronavirus disease (COVID-19) employment recovery program.

 

ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members—49 from the region.

 

Source: Asian Development Bank

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ASEAN kicks-off RCEP webinar series

JAKARTA, The ASEAN Secretariat, together with the East Asia Business Council (EABC), hosted the “Unlocking RCEP for Business: Trade in Goods” webinar on 26 July.

 

The session is the first in a series of webinars on Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) that will be organised throughout the year as part of its public campaign to better inform the business communities on how to utilise the RCEP for their businesses.

 

In his opening remarks, the Secretary-General of ASEAN Dato Lim Jock Hoi mentioned that, due to the pandemic, the value of ASEAN’s external trade declined by 5.5 % and the region’s economy recorded a contraction of 3.3%. However, the region’s economy is projected to bounce back this year.

 

“ASEAN’s economy is projected to grow by 4.0% this year and 5.2% next year. But this positive economic outlook is no reason for complacency as there is a risk of uneven growth which could exacerbate development gap and therefore, we need to ensure high utilisation rate of the RCEP Agreement among businesses in the region”, said Dato Lim Jock Hoi.

 

The webinar focused on the trade in goods aspect of the RCEP Agreement and touched on a number of important issues, such as the schedule of tariff commitments, preferential tariff treatment, non-tariff measures in trade in goods, and trade remedies under RCEP.

 

High-level panelists and key speakers, many of whom were involved in the RCEP negotiations, including Iman Pambagyo, who chaired the Trade Negotiating Committee, participated in the webinar.

 

The panelists all agreed that public outreach is as important as the negotiation process itself. Without a proper public outreach campaign on how to utilise preferences offered by the RCEP, the Agreement would run the risk of having a low utilisation rate and minimum impact on businesses.

 

Panellists also suggested that the ASEAN Secretariat work closely with regional and national business councils to organise events targeting small and medium enterprises to raise their awareness on the benefits of RCEP.

 

The RCEP Agreement is expected to enter into force by early January 2022. For the Agreement to enter into force, six signatories from the ASEAN Member States and three from the non-ASEAN Member States would need to deposit their Instrument of Ratification to the ASEAN Secretariat.

 

Parallel to the ratification process, preparatory work for the Agreement’s entry into force is also currently underway at the Interim RCEP Joint Committee. The full session of the webinar is available at this link.

 

Source: Association of Southeast Asian Nation