Day: February 3, 2022

Cambodia, the incumbent chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, says the Myanmar Junta’s Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin will not be invited to attend the 10-nation bloc’s top diplomatic gathering in Phnom Penh this month.

“Since there is little progress in the implementation of the 5-Point Consensus, ASEAN member states find it hard to reach a consensus to invite Myanmar SAC’s foreign minister to participate in the Retreat,” Cambodian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Chum Sounry told VOA Khmer on Wednesday, using an acronym of the Myanmar junta’s official name State Administration Council.

“Thus, we have asked Myanmar to send a non-political representative instead,” Chum Sounry said.

The gathering, known officially as the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreat, is one of the regional grouping’s most prominent annual meetings. It is scheduled to take place in Phnom Penh on February 16-17.

The decision by Phnom Penh not to invite the junta’s foreign minister indicates a reversal by Prime Minister Hun Sen’s government following his engagement in recent months with Myanmar’s coup-making generals – which included a visit to Naypyidaw – and after it had met resistance from fellow ASEAN member states, including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore.

Amid disagreement in early January, Cambodia decided to postpone the retreat that originally was set to be held January 18-19 in the northern town of Siem Reap.

Hun Sen said earlier that he wanted to restore the ASEAN-10 instead of the continued ban of the Myanmar junta.

“We encourage Myanmar to be presen[t] at the Retreat at a non-political level rather than leaving the seat empty. It is up to Myanmar to decide who that “non-political level” would be,” Chum Sounry said.

In subsequent calls with his ASEAN counterparts in January, Hun Sen firstly acknowledged the existence of the National Unity Government – Myanmar’s government in exile – and started raising the bar for the Myanmar Junta to show “progress” in implementing the bloc’s five-point consensus to be able to attend ASEAN’s political-level meetings.

Chum Sounry also clarified what can be regarded as “progress” in this context.

“When we talk about progress in the implementation of the 5PC, we wish to see more commitment from Myanmar and others to end violence through a ceasefire agreement, to kick-start a dialogue process that involved all parties concerned and to allow access to political detainees, and to enable and facilitate access of humanitarian assistance to those in need, etc.,” Chum Sounry said.

Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace’s research fellow Vann Bunna said the move shows the limits of Cambodia’s earlier maverick policy to engage Myanmar military regime in the face of opposition from the “more influential” ASEAN member states.

“Cambodia is doing so because it knows that if it continues to push for an inclusion of Myanmar junta’s foreign minister it will not be possible to hold any ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting,” Vann Bunna said.

Vann Bunna said the Cambodian government seems to have decided at this time that the interests in staying with other ASEAN member states outweighed the efforts to build trust and good relations with the Myanmar junta, which he deemed as unreliable, noting the junta violated the ceasefire it promised with Hun Sen during the latter’s Myanmar trip in early January.

Other main regional actors, including the ASEAN secretariat and Indonesian Embassy in Phnom Penh, have not immediately responded on Wednesday to VOA’s request for comment.

In an interview with VOA Khmer on Wednesday, U.S. Embassy Phnom Penh’s political chief Jonathan Turley renewed U.S. calls for Cambodia to “hold the Burmese military regime accountable.”

“We urge Cambodia as ASEAN chair to continue to press for the implementation of the five-point [consensus] and to ensure that any visit [to Myanmar] by the ASEAN special envoy includes meeting with all partners,” Turley said.

It was one year ago this week that the Myanmar military establishment Tatmadaw’s chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing overruled the reelection of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy government and launched a coup. Activists have said the post-coup bloodshed and violence has claimed more than 1,500 lives.

Source: Voice of America

Journalists at the Beijing Olympics have a tough assignment. Not only do they face a vast number of pandemic-related restrictions, they also will be working in one of the world’s least friendly countries for media.

Amid concerns about China’s surveillance and mistreatment of the press, many journalists at the Winter Games tell VOA they are using “burner” devices, such as phones and laptops completely wiped of personal data, to protect their digital privacy.

“I set up a burner computer … I have a burner phone. I even have a burner iPad with me,” said James Griffiths, Asia Correspondent for The Globe and Mail, a Canadian newspaper. “I haven’t come across anyone who isn’t using at least some kind of burner device.”

Ahead of the Winter Olympics, the Committee to Protect Journalists warned that reporters’ phones and laptops could be contaminated with malware while in China. “Assume that everything you do online will be monitored,” read a CPJ advisory.

China ranked 177th out of 180 in Reporters Without Borders’ 2021 World Press Freedom Index, only two places above North Korea. Not only does the country employ an army of censors to maintain its so-called “Great Firewall,” it is also the world’s largest jailer of journalists, with at least 128 detained, the organization said.

Earlier this week, the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of China released a report warning media freedom in the country is declining at “breakneck speed.” It said China-based foreign reporters faced physical assaults, cyber hacking, visa denials, and growing threats of legal action.

A bubble tradeoff

Foreign journalists at the Beijing Olympics have reported no problems so far, even if they have extremely limited mobility due to COVID-19 precautions.

“I’m currently connected to the Beijing 2022 Internet, which you can get across the various venues and as far as we can tell it’s completely uncensored. I don’t know how monitored it might be, of course, but at least things aren’t blocked,” said Griffiths.

“They said they were going to do this, and they have delivered. But then of course, we’re in a bubble,” he added.

Reporters at the Beijing Olympics won’t see much of China at all. Instead, they’ll be in a closed loop, taking only official buses from venue to venue. It’s part of China’s “zero-COVID” strategy, which has attempted to eliminate COVID-19, despite the emergence of the highly transmissible omicron variant.

The restrictions have made journalism more difficult, in certain respects.

“It’s really hard to get a feel for what these Games mean to the people here in Beijing, because the only person you could really ask is a member of the workforce or a volunteer. Trying to report on what’s happening outside the closed loop is not an option,” said Donna Spencer, a sports reporter for The Canadian Press news agency.

Spencer says she, too, brought “clean” laptops and phones to Beijing and is using virtual private networks, or VPNs, which can provide a degree of privacy for Internet connections. So far, she says she’s experienced no problems.

“It’s this very weird sort of juxtaposition. We are free to report — within the closed loop,” she said.

The only way in

The conditions may not be ideal, but for many journalists it was the only way to get back into China, said Eryk Bagshaw, North Asia correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald.

“The Olympics presented an opportunity that we may not get again,” said Bagshaw, who also brought clean laptops, phones, and even new email addresses to Beijing.

In recent years, Beijing has delayed or refused the issuance of visas for foreign journalists. However, many journalists at the Beijing Games were issued visas through the International Olympics Committee.

But Bagshaw conceded that the bubble has greatly simplified reporting in China — for better and for worse.

“You’re essentially submitting yourself to such total surveillance that there’s almost freedom in that,” he said. “There’s cameras absolutely everywhere — you’re not looking over your shoulder wondering if you’re being tailed because you’re speaking to a Chinese dissident.”

Source: Voice of America

Sanctions imposed on Myanmar officials aren’t enough to force change within the conflict-torn country, experts say.

This week, Britain, Canada and the United States imposed targeted sanctions on officials, coinciding with the anniversary of the coup that toppled Myanmar’s democratically elected government on Feb. 1, 2021.

Those sanctioned include Union Attorney General Thida Oo, Supreme Court Chief Justice Tun Tun Oo, along with Tin Oo, the chairman of the Anti-Corruption Commission and U Thein Soe, a former military general who was appointed the chair of Myanmar’s election commission following the coup.

Myanmar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Thursday decried “interference in internal affairs.”

The latest sanctions aren’t enough to upset the junta, according to Ben Hardman, a Myanmar legal and policy adviser based in Chiang Mai, Thailand, with the non-profit EarthRights International.

“When a country like the U.S. sanctions a person or company, it generally means that their U.S. assets are blocked and that people or companies in the U.S. cannot do business with them. So, sanctions may have very little impact on individuals in Myanmar that do not have interests outside of the country,” Hardman told VOA.

“These latest sanctions add to the pressure on the junta, but these are small straws that will not break the camel’s back any time soon,” he added.

After the military removed the democratically elected government last year, ousted politicians formed the National Unity Government or NUG, maintaining they are the legitimate leaders of Myanmar.

Tung Aung Shwe, the NUG’s representative to Australia, told VOA the latest sanctions are welcome but more must be forthcoming to deal a real blow to the junta.

“It is very welcome to hear the announcements of the U.K., U.S. and Canadian governments for their additional targeted sanctions on some members and associates of the Myanmar military junta,” Tun Aung Shwe said.

“It is imperative that sanctions be imposed on the junta’s Ministry of Oil, Gas and Energy (MoGE), the main source of revenue for its military power to suppress the people of Myanmar,” he added.

Since the coup, Myanmar’s economy has collapsed. The World Bank had forecast that Myanmar’s GDP would see an 18% drop in 2021, while Fitch Solutions, a U.S. credit rating agency, predicted Myanmar would suffer a 4.4% contraction for 2022.

Amid the economic decline, Myanmar relies more heavily on income from vital offshore projects that produce and export natural gas. Major investors have included Chevron Corp. of the U.S. and Myanma State Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE), of Myanmar.

Gas projects are expected to account for $1.4 billion, or slightly more than 10% of Myanmar’s total revenue in 2022, according to the Myanmar Now news service.

Last month, Chevron and French oil firm TotalEnergies announced they will pull out of Myanmar’s main offshore gas field, citing the coup. International attention has now turned to more targeted sanctions on MOGE.

Khin Ohmar, a veteran pro-democracy activist and founder of Progressive Voice, a human rights organization, urges more interruption of the junta’s income streams.

“The only income in terms of hard currency that the military junta can still collect is natural resource revenues, particularly from oil and gas. The junta and its affiliated companies will not be able to sustain the brutal terror campaign against the population without the financial power that these revenues provide,” she said.

“We particularly need President Biden and President Macron to impose sanctions on the Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise to stop oil and gas revenues from flowing to the junta,” she added, referring to U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron.

Although Myanmar has suffered decades of fighting with ethnic armed organizations, the junta is now involved in daily fighting with the country’s growing People Defense Forces, as thousands of anti-coup protesters have taken up arms to resist the military government. The PDF is the armed wing of the National Unity Government.

Widespread protests against military rule have been met violently by junta forces. According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a non-profit monitoring group based in Thailand, at least 1,510 people have been killed by the military.

U.N. human rights chief Michelle Bachelet recently told the BBC that the conflict in Myanmar, also known as Burma, should now be termed a civil war. She called on the U.N. Security Council to take “stronger action” to pressure the military to restore democracy.

Cambodian Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn last month acknowledged the situation has “all the ingredients” for civil war. Prak Sokhonn is also ASEAN’s special envoy to Myanmar, ASEAN being the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

The 10-member grouping agreed in April to a “five-point consensus” aimed at halting the deteriorating conditions in Myanmar. Little progress has been made as the military continues to suppress dissent.

Khin Ohmar said the ASEAN effort has been “pointless” thus far.

“The situation in Myanmar clearly poses a threat to international peace and security, yet the West continues to default to ASEAN’s role and its so-called five-point consensus, or ‘five-pointless consensus’ as we call it. The more the international community waits, the more emboldened the junta will become as it escalates its crimes against humanity and war crimes,” she said.

The military government said Thursday it is “committed” to peace, stability and the interests of its people in accordance with the five-point plan. The junta also rejected what it termed as statements that interfere in the country’s internal affairs.

The U.N.’s special envoy to Myanmar, Noeleen Heyzer, is still hoping for a cease-fire from all parties. In a recent interview with Channel News Asia, she said the anti-military opposition must negotiate a power-sharing agreement to fix Myanmar’s current political and human rights crisis.

But 247 Myanmar civil society organizations have sharply rebuffed the possibility of a coalition. A joint statement said the special envoy must “understand the root causes of the current crisis and genuinely listen to the calls of the people.”

Myanmar gained independence in 1948 from Britain, but for most of its modern history has been under military rule.

In the November 2020 general elections, the military claimed widespread electoral fraud, without evidence. The coup saw the democratically elected government removed with its leader Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint detained and sentenced to multiple prison terms.

Source: Voice of America

Philippines leaders are moving to purchase sophisticated anti-ship cruise missiles in what analysts see as a sign of new resolve to stand up to China in a maritime dispute and to pivot further toward Manila’s traditional ally, the United States.

The Philippines made deals in January to acquire BrahMos missiles from a Russian-Indian joint venture. The move follows Manila’s July 2021 consent to sustain a U.S. visiting forces agreement, which allows for arms sales, intelligence sharing and U.S. troops’ access to Philippine soil for military exercises.

The Philippines is a part of a network of pro-U.S. countries in East Asia, but President Rodrigo Duterte challenged the U.S. alliance in 2016 by pursuing friendly ties with Asian superpower China, which he lauded while criticizing U.S. influence in his country. A series of territorial disputes in the South China Sea have cooled Duterte’s overtures over the past four years.

“He doesn’t like slights to his authority, slights to his ego and slights to Philippine sovereignty, and he’s faced that,” said Carl Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South Wales in Australia. “And so, I think his legacy in his mind — ‘we stood up to the United States in the beginning and then it didn’t work with China’ — and so he’s punishing them.”

Missile orders

BrahMos Aerospace Private Ltd. announced the signing of its contract with the Philippine Department of National Defense in a terse January 28 press release on its website.

Manila’s state-run Philippine News Agency reported a week previously that the deal was worth $375 million and that two batteries would be available to the Philippine army for coastal defense missions.

Experts say the Philippines’ armed forces, which set out eight years ago to modernize at sea, would likely use the missiles to deter Beijing’s use of coast guard, naval and fishing vessels in the South China Sea west of Luzon Island and south of Hong Kong, experts say.

“In a conflict situation, they would be used to attack vessels at sea, and in the context of the Philippines, it would be more useful in controlling the movement of ships into or out of the South China Sea,” said Jay Batongbacal, international maritime affairs professor at the University of the Philippines in Quezon City.

BrahMos missiles have a 290-kilometer range and are designed to travel about three and a half times faster than the American subsonic Harpoon cruise missile. The Philippines is the first non-Indian buyer of the missile systems, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute data indicate.

Old dispute, new chill

Chinese officials point to documents dating back to dynastic times as support for their claim to about 90% of the 3.5 million-square-kilometer South China Sea, while the Philippines rejects China’s claim by citing a United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea. Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam claim all or parts of the sea, which is valued for fisheries, fossil fuel reserves and marine shipping lanes.

Over the past decade, China, as keeper of Asia’s strongest military, has alarmed the other claimants by constructing artificial islands for military use and passing its vessels through disputed tracts of water. The Philippines won a world court arbitration case against China in 2016 over the reach of China’s maritime claims, but China rejected the ruling.

Duterte sought a first-ever Sino-Philippine friendship that same year, as China pledged $24 billion in aid and investment for the impoverished Southeast Asian country. Over the past four years, however, China has allowed its boats to venture near disputed maritime features, and a Chinese vessel sank a Filipino boat in 2019.

Many Filipinos believe the post-2016 uptick in Sino-Philippine relations has not delivered enough aid or investment. The U.S. government represents a more stable ally, some analysts say.

“I do think (Duterte) still recognizes that, practically speaking, the Philippines can’t do it alone,” said Derek Grossman, senior defense analyst with the U.S.-based Rand Corporation research organization.

Washington still “stands by its ally the Philippines,” the U.S. Department of State said in a November statement on Chinese coast guard vessels that used water cannons against Filipino resupply ships in the South China Sea.

Election uncertainty

Duterte must step down from office in June because of term limits. Presidential election front-runner Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, has said he would not seek U.S. help in settling the maritime dispute with China. But most Filipinos still prefer stronger U.S. ties, analysts say, so Marcos might take a tougher line against Beijing, or a stronger stance in favor of Washington, if elected in May.

“If things are stable in the South China Sea, then China won’t be much of an election issue, but, for example, (if) another incident takes place, this will prop up nationalist sentiment here in the Philippines,” said Aaron Rabena, a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation in Metro Manila.

China has not formally protested the BrahMos missile deals. Its forces could ultimately “overwhelm” the missiles, Batongbacal said.

At a media Christmas party in December, the Chinese ambassador to Manila, Huang Xilian, sounded an optimistic note regarding overall relations. “As the relationship between China and the Philippines become increasingly closer, some differences have inevitably appeared, but this does not affect our overall relationship,” Huang said.

Source: Voice of America

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet Friday ahead of the opening ceremony for the 2022 Beijing Olympics, in what is expected to be a show of unity amid each country’s increasingly fraught relationship with the United States.

Though Russia and China do not share a formal alliance, both countries have drawn closer in recent years as they work to counter U.S. influence.

China has been more vocal in supporting Russia, even as Moscow masses more than 100,000 troops along the border with Ukraine, raising fears of a conflict. Russia has demanded Ukraine not join NATO and wants the military alliance to pull back troops from Eastern Europe.

Analysts say Russia-China cooperation could make it harder for the United States to punish Moscow in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

An increase in U.S.-Russia hostilities could also divert the attention of U.S. President Joe Biden, who has identified China as his biggest foreign policy priority.

However, China may not welcome any major foreign policy distractions, either.

Beijing on Friday will host the opening ceremony for what will be more than two weeks of Olympic events. Perhaps even more importantly, Xi is in the midst of a crucially important season of domestic political maneuvering meant to shape what is expected to be his indefinite rule over China.

“Beijing wants stability and predictability. They will not welcome foreign turbulence,” said Ryan Hass, a China scholar at the U.S.-based Brookings Institution, in a thread on Twitter.

Xi and Putin, two strongman leaders who preside over authoritarian governments, have a long history. This will be the 38th meeting between the two men, according to Beijing.

In December, Xi said he welcomed the visit by Putin, whom he called his “old friend.” Putin was the first international leader to RSVP for the Beijing Olympics, after the United States announced a diplomatic boycott of the Games over China’s abuses against Uyghur Muslims.

In a letter published earlier this week in China’s official Xinhua news agency, Putin slammed the U.S.-led boycott, lamenting “attempts by a number of countries to politicize sports for their selfish interests.” Putin’s letter also declared that the Russia-China partnership had entered a “new era.”

Russia and China have a long history of working together to block U.S. positions at the United Nations Security Council, where all three are veto-wielding permanent members.

Most recently, China and Russia have found common ground over Ukraine. A recent statement by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs referred to Russia’s “legitimate security concerns” and called for an end to “Cold War mentality,” a clear reference to what it sees as U.S. foreign policy.

“The Chinese have moved progressively closer to Russian positions,” said Evan Feigenbaum, vice president for studies at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

This is a major shift from China. During Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 and its invasion of Crimea in 2014, China was “not leaning so far in toward their partnership with Russia,” Feigenbaum said, speaking at an online forum.

“The China-Russia partnership looks a lot different to an American not just defense planner but strategic thinker than it would have just six or seven years ago,” he said.

However, China has also called for a lowering of tensions over Ukraine and proposed the implementation of the Minsk agreement, a 2014-15 deal to restore peace following a flare-up of violence along the Russia-Ukraine border.

“China is in a diplomatic logjam,” Hass said. “It would face difficulties and unwelcome turbulence from a conflict in Ukraine, but at the same time it wants to preserve strong relations with Russia and it does not want to do the U.S. any favors.”

Source: Voice of America