Subseasonal Weather Outlook (30 May – 12 June 2022)

Issued: 27 May 2022
First forecast week: 30 May – 5 June
Second forecast week: 6 June – 12 June

For rainfall, wetter conditions are expected over the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (30 May – 12 June). Drier conditions are expected over much of the eastern half of the equatorial region in Week 1 (30 May – 5 June). In Week 2 (6 June – 12 June), drier conditions are expected over southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia.

For temperature, warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over the southeastern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (30 May – 5 June). These warmer conditions may ease in Week 2 (6 June – 12 June). Cooler than usual temperatures are expected over southern Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of the Philippines in Week 1.

There was no Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal present towards the end of May based on the RMM index. An MJO signal is expected to emerge over the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) and then propagate to the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phase 8) in Week 1. Most models predict the MJO signal to decay in Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.