Subseasonal Weather Outlook (29 November – 12 December 2021)

Key Issues

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (29 November – 12 December 2021)

Issued 26 November 2021
First forecast week: 29 November – 5 December
Second forecast week: 6 November – 12 December

figure1

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

figure2

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are expected over southern Mainland Southeast Asia, parts of the Philippines, and the southeastern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (29 November – 5 December). These wetter conditions are likely to persist over coastal parts of Viet Nam and the Philippines in Week 2 (6 – 12 December).

Drier conditions are expected over the western and central equatorial region in Week 1 (29 November – 5 December).

For temperature, cooler than usual temperature is expected over much of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (29 November – 12 December). Warmer than usual temperature is expected over the western and central equatorial region in Week 1 (29 November – 5 December), in line with the drier conditions predicted.

No coherent Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present towards the end of November. Some models predict an MJO signal to propagate eastward through the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) and the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) in the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.