Police, Officials in China’s Chengdu Order Early Rain Church Members to Leave

Officials and community enforcers in Chengdu have issued eviction orders to a group operating under the aegis of the now-banned Early Rain Covenant Church and detained one of them in a continuing crackdown on the unofficial Protestant group.

Video footage of the incident seen by RFA showed a government official asking the group to relocate, leading to an altercation.

“Residents of the Wuhou community of the Early Rain Covenant Church have been harassed again,” a church member who asked to remain anonymous told RFA.

“A large group of people turned up claiming to be the owners and told us we weren’t welcome.”

A church member who gave the surname Li said police and officials had turned up at Jiaoda Garden residential compound in Chengdu’s Wuhou district, where several Early Rain members live as a community, on Sept. 2.

“The families of several members of the group were successively evicted by a group of people organized by the police station and the community owners’ committee,” Li said.

“They weren’t allowed to enter, and they were asked to move out of the community,” he said.

Then, police from Jinyang police station visited the homes of several church members on Friday, asking them to move out within three days.

During an altercation with police, church member Li Ying was detained at the police station for allegedly “interfering with law enforcement” and released later the same day.

“One of our brothers was negotiating with them, and was taken to the police station for questioning for obstructing law enforcement because he inquired about and asked for proof of identity from the police officers,” Li said.

“On the morning of Sept. 3, one member received a guest at their home, and then police and members of the residential community’s neighborhood committee came knocking on the door, demanding that the guest leave,” he said.

Detained, jailed

The evictions attempts come after police detained several minors and jailed two members of the Early Rain Covenant Church following a raid on a gathering in Chengdu on Aug. 22.

Meeting host Dai Zhichao and church member He Shan were sentenced to 14 days’ administrative detention, a sentence that can be handed down by a police-run committee without the need for a trial, following a Sunday raid by state security police and officials from the municipal religious affairs bureau.

On Dec. 30, 2019, the Chengdu Intermediate People’s Court jailed Early Rain pastor Wang Yi for nine years, after finding him guilty of “incitement to subvert state power” and of “running an illegal business” in a secret trial.

Wang, who founded the church, was detained by police in Sichuan’s provincial capital Chengdu on Dec. 14, 2018, alongside dozens of church members in a raid that prompted an international outcry.

Some Early Rain Covenant Church members who were detained in raids on Dec. 9 and 10, 2018, and later released said the police had beaten them, and one detainee described being tied to a chair and deprived of water and food for 24 hours, rights groups reported at the time.

The ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) under general secretary Xi Jinping regards Christianity as a dangerous foreign import, with party documents warning against the “infiltration of Western hostile forces” in the form of religion.

The party, which embraces atheism, exercises tight controls over any form of religious practice among its citizens.

State security police and religious affairs bureau officials frequently raid unofficial “house churches” that aren’t members of the CCP-backed Three-Self Patriotic Association, although member churches have also been targeted at times.

China is home to an estimated 68 million Protestants, of whom 23 million worship in state-affiliated churches under the aegis of the Three-Self Patriotic Association, and some nine million Catholics, the majority of whom are in state-sponsored organizations.

Translated and edited by Luisetta Mudie.

Teachers Fired in China For Offering Paid Tutor Sessions to Own Students

Teachers across China are being reported and punished for offering paid catch-up sessions to students amid an ongoing crackdown on the tutoring industry by the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) under Xi Jinping.

In one case, a teacher surnamed Lü in the eastern province of Anhui was “busted by a local education authority after parents exposed him,” the CCP-backed Global Times newspaper reported on July 28.

Lü was apprehended outside a “fancy villa” on the outskirts of Anhui’s Huangshan city, where he was hosting paid tutorial classes for his students.

“The Huangshan education bureau is currently investigating the case and it is expected to exert a severe punishment,” the paper said, adding that some high school teachers charge as much as 1,000 yuan (U.S.$153) per session for “catch-up” sessions.

In another case, a math teacher surnamed Yang, who had been honored as a “super-teacher” by local authorities, was found to be charging 120 yuan/hour for additional coaching. He was subsequently caught and ordered to pay back all of the tuition fees to parents, before getting fired from his job.

Former high-school teacher Wang Yu from the southern province of Guangdong said the students often request such catch-up sessions from teachers, and that teachers and students alike should bear consequences for breaking the new rules.

“The government is banning supplementary lessons outside school, because it’s assumed that the teachers can cover the necessary material in full in class,” Wang said.

“But students’ ability varies, and some learn fast, while other don’t, and need to have supplementary tutoring outside of school,” he said. “This should be a contract between two parties that each is equally responsible for.”

Wang said schools have also been charging pupils wishing to stay in school after formal class ends at lunchtime, to complete their homework.

“Some places have been charging five yuan a day if students stay in school for one to two hours to do homework [after class],” Wang said. “I calculated this to estimate that a school makes around … 1.8 million yuan annually from these afternoon service charges, and that doesn’t include the lunch-break fee [to take a siesta in school before doing homework].”

“[This is now happening] because of the ban on out-of-school tuition,” Wang said.

Politically motivated ban

Current affairs commentator Guo Baosheng said the tutoring ban was politically motivated.

“The reasoning behind these new regulations wasn’t justified, and came purely from political considerations,” Guo said. “It seems that China’s education system has failed to instill any moral values in anyone; it seems to have made them worse.”

On June 15, the Ministry of Education set up a new department to monitor off-campus education and training provisions, to implement “reforms to the off-campus education and training sector.”

The CCP leadership signaled on July 30 that it would press ahead with a crackdown on private tuition schools and other measures aimed at slashing homework and out-of-hours educational activities.

Training institutions were banned from offering subject-based tutoring on national statutory holidays, rest days, or winter and summer vacations, the directive said.

More than 75 percent of students in primary and secondary education attended after-school tutoring in 2016, the most recent industry figures showed, and the need to hothouse children privately to get them into the best schools was criticized by CCP leader Xi Jinping in March as a barrier to boosting birth rates.

And the State Administration for Market Regulation announced on June 1 it would be “rectifying” tutoring services run by internet giants Tencent and Alibaba, fining the companies around U.S.$5.73 million for regulatory violations.

The moves came after a March 6 speech by CCP general secretary Xi Jinping, who hit out at “chaos” in the tutoring industry, calling it “a stubborn disease that is hard to manage.”

Translated and edited by Luisetta Mudie.

China Feels Heat on Climate Change Goals

China’s key industries are sending mixed signals on controlling carbon emissions as the government prepares to release new details of its climate change plans.

As the world’s largest source of greenhouse gases, China has been under pressure to improve on its emissions pledges in time for the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland in November.

The meeting of some 200 countries, known as the Conference of Parties, or COP26, is seen as a watershed event for efforts to avert the worst effects of global warming.

A report in August by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that the world is already likely to reach the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming by 2040, even if most nations meet their goals of achieving “net zero” carbon emissions by 2050.

In China’s most recent pledges last September, President Xi Jinping said the country would strive to hit its peak in carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions before 2060.

Despite rapid development of renewable energy sources, experts say that the 2060 target will be difficult because of China’s consumption of fossil fuels, especially coal.

Earlier this year, experts voiced disappointment with China’s failure to set deadlines for carbon reduction efforts in its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), delaying specifics of its sectoral targets until the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026- 2030).

The delay sent a signal that the government would prioritize economic growth and recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic in the near term, leaving the tougher tasks of environmental controls until later in the decade.

Those concerns have been largely borne out by the government’s call for more coal production to ease power shortages and support industrial production this year.

The country has also defied international pressure by continuing to build new coal-fired power plants during the current plan period.

On the second of two recent trips to China, U.S. Special Envoy John Kerry this week pressed Chinese officials to stop approving new coal plants.

Recent reviews of China’s progress by advocacy groups have been mixed.

Coal Revival

On Aug. 25, the environmental group Greenpeace East Asia said that China’s provincial governments had approved 24 new coal power projects with 5.2 gigawatts (GW) of generating capacity in the first half of the year. That represented a 79-percent decline from the year-earlier period, Bloomberg News said.

“Especially since Xi’s climate summit remarks, local governments have slowed approvals for new coal. But provinces are clearly still anticipating financial support on coal,” said Li Danqing, a Greenpeace East Asia project leader.

“China needs to urgently expedite its electricity transition,” the UK-based climate research group Ember said in a semiannual update report. China was responsible for 90 percent of the world’s growth in electricity demand from the first half of 2019 to the comparable period this year.

“As a result, China’s share of global coal generation rose from 50 percent in 2019 to 53 percent in H1-2021,” Ember said,

At the same time, the government has pressed key polluting industries like steel to accelerate carbon reduction plans in preparation for compliance with new national goals.

China’s steel industry, which accounts for about 15 percent of the country’s carbon emissions, according to Reuters, has been pushed to reach a peak by 2025, the Communist Party tabloid Global Times reported in March.

In attempts to curb industry excesses, the government has raised export tariffs on steel and set a goal of limiting annual output to not exceed the record 1.05 billion metric tons produced last year.

Despite the pressure, crude steel production through July was already 56 million tons ahead of the 2020 pace, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported, raising concerns that deep cuts and price hikes could be in the cards for the rest of the year.

As deadlines draw nearer, China’s climate and economic goals seem to be pulling in opposite directions. Statistical analyses of available data also appear to be reflecting the strains.

One example is a recent report for the UK-based website Carbon Brief, showing a “marked slowdown” in the growth of China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the second quarter, with an increase of just 1 percent from a year before, compared with a year-on-year rise of 15 percent in the first quarter reported earlier.

The figures suggested that China has already made major progress in curbing emissions in the April-June quarterly period.

“These shifts appear to reflect steps the government has taken to control financial vulnerabilities, particularly in the real estate sector, as well as to rein in further rapid increase in steel production,” said the report by veteran climate researcher Lauri Myllyvirta at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

The findings were based on official reports of domestic production, import and export of fossil fuels and cement, and commercial data on stocks of stored fuel, the analysis said.

But while the government has taken steps to discourage excessive property development and steel production, the readings based on year-to-year comparisons raise doubts about such a dramatic drop in CO2 growth rates.

COVID effect

Economists and energy experts have warned against drawing conclusions based on comparisons with the first quarter of 2020, when the country’s gross domestic product plunged by a record 6.8 percent due to the COVID-19 lockdown, according to NBS data.

“Comparing the first quarter of 2021 with the first quarter of 2020 is not useful as the first quarter of 2020 was the peak of the pandemic,” said Philip Andrews-Speed, a principal senior fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Energy Studies Institute.

Equally suspect are comparisons to the second quarter of 2020 when GDP partially recovered with growth of 3.2 percent, far below the 6.2-percent growth rate of Q2 2019.

China may well have made progress in planning for reductions in C02 growth rates, but the results appear to be less than evident judging by official data on energy- intensive products like steel and cement.

Production of crude steel actually rose 7.8 percent in the second quarter from the first quarter, and the output of cement over the same period soared by a stunning 61.2 percent.

The quarter-to-quarter comparisons may have their own problems due to variations in winter weather and the Lunar New Year holiday period.

But the NBS data for the key construction materials make it hard to argue that China’s carbon emissions have markedly improved.

Steel production topped well over 90 million tons for every month this year reported through June. Even with a decline in July, seven-month output rose 8 percent from a year before.

Monthly rates for cement production have declined from May through July, but so far this year, output has climbed 10.4 percent.

Production of coal through July is up 4.9 percent and thermal power, fueled by coal and gas, has surged 14.7 percent. Total electricity generation was up 13.2 percent in the seven-month period.

Andrews-Speed said that total power output in the second quarter was marginally down compared with last year’s third and fourth quarters, “which is consistent with a slowing of the economy.”

The Carbon Brief report noted that China has continued to announce new investments in coal-based production capacity for the two largest CO2 emitters, the power sector and the iron and steel industry, “pointing to a continued mismatch with the country’s emissions goals.”

crop.zone Sweeps the PotatoEurope Innovation Awards and Wins Two Prizes

A real game-changer in potato desiccation

crop.zone sweeps the PotatoEurope Innovation Awards and wins two prizes

crop.zone sweeps the PotatoEurope Innovation Awards and wins two prizes

AACHEN, Germany, Sept. 03, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — crop.zone, the new hybrid electric solution for alternative crop desiccation and weed management, has been voted the most innovative new technology in potato production by potato
professionals worldwide. In addition to the Audience Award, NUCROP won the silver medal at the Potato Europe Innovation Awards out of 30 entries. Both prizes were presented on 1 September 2021 in Lelystad, the Netherlands.
Developed by the German startup crop.zone and brought to farmers across Europe in cooperation with Australian crop protection specialist Nufarm, the hybrid electric desiccation and weed control solution uses a conductive liquid and electric power to destroy unwanted plants and weeds.

“We’re very excited about both awards,” says Dirk Vandenhirtz, CEO of crop.zone. “With this new technology, we’re helping farmers meet the increasing demands of sustainable agriculture.”

Nufarm offers the NUCROP solution to farmers throughout its distribution network of channel partners in the agricultural sector. Developed by crop.zone, the technology behind NUCROP combines an organic liquid activator with an electric treatment. This combination allows fast, economical desiccation treatment for your potatoes.

The current application width of 12 m will increase in the future to allow even faster and more reliable treatment. “As a traditional crop protection company, we’re pleased to be able to offer growers this new, sustainable, and highly effective solution starting this year. NUCROP complements our chemical and biological crop protection portfolios and offers an alternative solution, especially in crops for which proven chemical treatments are no longer available.
We began offering NUCROP to farms in France, Germany, BENELUX, and the UK this year. We’re delighted it won two prizes, which shows that it is one of the most innovative technologies in potato cultivation on the market today,” says Hildo Brilleman, Regional General Manager EuMEA at Nufarm.

Media contact
crop.zone GmbH
Pascalstr.55
52076 Aachen
mob. +49 (172) 8772286
usa +1 (919) 251-6320
de +49 (2408) 5980-333
ch +41 (44) 585 34 88

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crop.zone sweeps the PotatoEurope Innovation Awards and wins two prizes
A real game-changer in potato desiccation Dirk Vandenhirtz CEO crop.zone and Hildo Brilleman, Regional General Manager EuMEA at Nufarm

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Verisk’s AIR Worldwide Estimates Insured Losses for Hurricane Ida Will Range from USD 17 Billion to USD 25 Billion

BOSTON, Sept. 03, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Extreme event modeling firm AIR Worldwide estimates that industry insured losses to onshore property resulting from Hurricane Ida’s winds and storm surge will range from USD 17 billion to USD 25 billion. AIR Worldwide is a Verisk (Nasdaq:VRSK) business.

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates include insured physical damage to property (residential, commercial, industrial, auto), both structures and their contents from winds, wind-borne debris, storm surge, and the impact of demand surge. The industry loss estimates also reflect an adjustment to account for increased material and other repair costs in the current construction market. Hurricane precipitation-induced flood losses are not included in AIR estimates at this time.

Ida traveled over very warm Gulf waters, including a thick layer of warm water in the Loop Current, and intensified to make two landfalls in Louisiana, both at Category 4 strength, on August 29. The storm’s first landfall was near Port Fourchon about 60 miles south of New Orleans, with a maximum sustained wind speed of 150 mph; its second landfall was southwest of Galliano, with a maximum sustained wind speed of 145 mph. Around the time of landfall, the storm was undergoing an eyewall replacement. In practical terms, New Orleans experienced strong winds on the order of 90 to 100 mph due to the large windfield and a slow decay of the storm.

The storm surge Ida produced was along expected lines and generally not as severe as Hurricane Katrina’s—particularly in Mississippi and New Orleans (the latter of which was fully protected by the city’s levee system)—but some areas of southeastern Louisiana with insufficient protection experienced severe storm surge during Ida.

According to analysis by Wood Mackenzie, a sister company in the Verisk family, Hurricane Ida has had a significant impact on Louisiana refinery operations and Gulf of Mexico production, causing a historic U.S. crude supply chain disruption. Utility disruptions caused by lack of power, mobile data services, and water, could lead to Ida becoming a long-tailed event when it comes to claims reporting, payouts, etc.

While New Orleans’ levees held, the city was not spared Ida’s wind impacts. Damage was variable given the nature of building inventory in the metro New Orleans area. Areas close to where Ida made landfall such as LaFourche Parish, where Port Fourchon is located, was particularly hard hit with widespread destruction. Grand Isle Parish, a barrier island, has been declared uninhabitable. Even in towns just inland from where Ida came ashore, such as Galliano and Houma, wind damage was severe to catastrophic.

In terms of storm surge, most levees held up well, with a few localized failures that have created flooding beyond that from storm surge. Communities to the north, west, south, and east of the hurricane protection system that surrounds New Orleans were inundated. Ida’s storm surge inundated far into the bayous and inhabited areas of southeastern Louisiana, as well as areas near Lake Pontchartrain. Minor near-coastal inundation also occurred in Mississippi and Alabama. Key areas flooded by storm surge in Louisiana include Port Fourchon, Grand Isle, Delacroix, Alliance, Lafitte, Jean Lafitte, Barataria, Laplace, Mandeville, Braithwaite, Shell Beach, Galliano, Golden Meadow, and Venetian Isles. Surge inundation depth exceeded 10 feet in some places, but several tide gauges near maximum storm surge broke, leading to uncertainty in Ida’s maximum storm surge water level.

Louisiana has a statewide adoption of the Louisiana State Uniform Construction Code. These codes were adopted and have been effective since early 2018. According to these standards, buildings are required to be designed to a prescribed wind speed that varies spatially with higher design wind speeds along the coast and the values decreasing as we move inland. For Port Fourchon and Grand Isle, the design 3-second gust wind speeds for typical residential and commercial structures is between 160 and 170 mph. For towns such as Golden Meadow, Galliano, Dulac, and the southern portions of Houma, design requirements are between 150 and 160 mph on 3-second gust basis. New Orleans, Lockport, and towns along Route 90 require buildings to be designed to winds of 140 to 150 mph 3-second gust.

Commercial buildings with higher human occupancy requirements and those serving essential functions such as hospitals are typically subject to more stringent requirements per the IBC, given the risk category in which individual commercial buildings fall. Generally, Hurricane Ida was below the design standards for structures built under these standards. Widespread catastrophic structural failure was therefore not expected. Buildings that are older and predate the adoption of some of these standards can be expected to perform worse and sometimes become debris sources that can impact adjacent newer buildings. While adoption of building codes is one aspect, an equally important aspect is their enforcement. While enforcement is good for coastal counties, the same is not true for inland counties. Therefore, as Ida trekked through the state and continued to produce damaging winds, damage can be expected to buildings across the entire state.

According to AIR and Xactware®, a sister company within Verisk, materials costs have gone up significantly in the past year from supply chain disruption in the construction market. Although these costs have moderated since their peak in July when they were 80% higher than September of last year, they remain about 30% higher. Repair costs are still up significantly.

Reconstruction costs are more expensive today than they were a year ago. The increase in the total reconstruction cost index means that costs are higher on average nationally; this affects the low- as well as the high-severity events. The difference in magnitude of the impact will come from the mix of construction materials used. For example, minor wind losses are less likely to require repairs that use more expensive inputs such as structural lumber; however, dwellings that are a total loss would require a broader mix of inputs that reflect the higher increases indicated by the total reconstruction index. Therefore, companies should bear these increases in mind and should expect the average claim to be higher before considering demand surge.

An additional source of uncertainty related to materials cost demand surge is the cost of diesel fuel, which has been impacted by the shutdown of refineries during Ida; this fuel would be used to transport materials. While some of these facilities were undamaged, the uncertainty around the timing of the restoration of the power grid and lack of electricity in the meantime is going to keep some of them from coming back online and contributing to the diesel fuel supply.

One other important aspect of demand surge to note is that after Hurricane Katrina, about half of the population of New Orleans moved away and the city never returned to pre Katrina population levels. This mass migration probably mitigated economic demand surge, which was not as great as it might have been after that storm.

About AIR Worldwide
AIR Worldwide (AIR) provides risk modeling solutions that make individuals, businesses, and society more resilient to extreme events. In 1987, AIR Worldwide founded the catastrophe modeling industry and today models the risk from natural catastrophes, terrorism, pandemics, casualty catastrophes, and cyber incidents. Insurance, reinsurance, financial, corporate, and government clients rely on AIR’s advanced science, software, and consulting services for catastrophe risk management, insurance-linked securities, longevity modeling, site-specific engineering analyses, and agricultural risk management. AIR Worldwide, a Verisk (Nasdaq:VRSK) business, is headquartered in Boston, with additional offices in North America, Europe, and Asia. For more information, please visit www.air-worldwide.com.


Kevin Long
AIR Worldwide
01-617-267-6645
klong@air-worldwide.com

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (6 – 19 September 2021)

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (6 – 19 September 2021)

Issued 3 September 2021
First forecast week: 6 September – 12 September
Second forecast week: 13 September – 19 September

figure1

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

figure2

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are expected in the next fortnight (6 – 19 September) over much of the central and eastern Maritime Continent. Wetter conditions are also expected in Week 1 (6 – 12 September) over most parts of Mainland Southeast Asia as well as northern parts of the Philippines. These wetter conditions are generally expected to ease by Week 2 (13 – 19 September), apart from a small increase in probability that the wetter conditions continue for some coastal regions of Myanmar.

Warmer temperatures are expected over the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (6 – 19 September).

No coherent MJO signal was present at the start of September. Some models predict an MJO to develop over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) in Week 1 and then propagate eastwards over the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5). There is a large uncertainty in the strength of this MJO signal.
 
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.